SENATE
Alabama
Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) has scheduled what he is terming “a Big Announcement,” for August 15 and the supposition is he will declare his candidacy for the state’s open US Senate seat. The major clue is the festival-type event he is holding in the city of Sylvania, which is in the northeastern sector and about as far from his southern Alabama congressional district one can get and still be within the state.
Assuming Rep. Moore runs for the Senate, his major Republican opponent, to date, will be Attorney General Steve Marshall who is ineligible to seek a third term for his current position. Others are expected to join. The eventual Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
New Hampshire
Former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R) now has a New Hampshire US Senate Republican primary challenger. State Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), who has previously run for federal office, declared that he will compete for the GOP Senate nomination.
Sen. Innis has been elected from two Senate districts during his career, one in the Seacoast region, and the other, his current seat, in the middle part of the state just northwest of the state’s capital city of Concord. Sen. Innis is also a business owner and the former dean of business studies at the University of New Hampshire. The eventual Republican nominee will begin the race against consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), as a decided underdog. Three-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring.
HOUSE
CA-21
Retired Army Colonel Lorenzo Rios announced he will compete for the Republican nomination to challenge veteran US Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno), who has been in elected office since 1979 when adding his time in the state legislature with his congressional service. The Fresno anchored 21st CD is becoming more competitive. Rep. Costa has twice defeated former FBI agent Michael Maher (R) with percentage wins in the low 50s in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. Mr. Maher is not likely to return for a third attempt.
CA-22
Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield), criticizing veteran Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) for voting in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill that she claims will cut Medicaid benefits for a district’s constituency where 60% of the residents are in the program, announced her congressional candidacy. The 22nd District carries a partisan lean of 55.5D – 42.6R according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, thus making it one of the most Democratic districts in the country to elect a Republican to the House. As usual, this will be a highly competitive campaign next year. Three other Democrats, including two-time congressional candidate and ex-Assemblyman Rudy Salas, are also in the race.
CO-1
Former corporate attorney Melot Kiros, who was fired from her law firm for “calling for the elimination of the state of Israel,” announced that she will launch a Democratic primary challenge to 15-term incumbent US Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver). The Congresswoman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in Colorado’s strongest Democratic congressional seat.
CT-3
Another Democratic primary challenge is emerging against a veteran incumbent who is advanced in years. Like others, Democratic attorney Damjan DeNoble plans to make veteran incumbent Rosa DeLauro’s (D-New Haven) age a key factor in his campaign. The Congresswoman will be 83 years of age at the time of Connecticut’s August primary election.
IL-7
Former Cook County Commissioner Richard Boykin became the sixth Democrat to announce a challenge to 83-year-old veteran US Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago). The Congressman has yet to announce whether he will seek a 16th term. Rep. Davis has faced several primary challenges in his safely Democratic district, but the large number of opponents has allowed him to repeatedly win with a small majority. The only two 2026 Davis opponents with electoral experience are Mr. Boykin and state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago).
IA-2
Kathryn Dolter, the former dean of nursing at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids, announced her candidacy for the Democratic congressional nomination to oppose Iowa US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids). On paper, the 2nd appears drawn as a competitive district, but Ms. Hinson has secured the seat over the past three elections and is already reporting a financial war chest of just under $3 million to begin another campaign. Earlier, Kevin Techau (D), a former US Attorney, ended his short-lived campaign opposite Rep. Hinson citing his poor fundraising.
NV-3
Las Vegas physician James Lally announced that he will challenge four-term Democratic US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in next year’s Democratic primary. Rep. Lee will be one of the Republicans’ top 2026 targets and six candidates are competing for the GOP nomination. In 2024, Rep. Lee was re-elected with only a 51.4 re-election percentage.
The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean here is 51.7D – 43.7R, though President Trump carried the seat in 2024 with a 49.5 – 48.8% margin. The 2024 Republican nominee, policy analyst Drew Johnson, is not returning for another congressional run. Instead, he is running for State Treasurer.
NJ-9
Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino announced that she will compete for the GOP nomination to challenge freshman New Jersey US Rep. Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon). Ms. Pino will face 2024 nominee Billy Prempeh in the GOP primary.
Despite Mr. Prempeh spending less than $48,000 in a non-targeted open seat race, Ms. Pou, then a state Senator, only managed a 51-46% election victory in a surprising finish. Previously, Democratic Congressman Bill Pascrell, who passed away in August of 2024, had held the Paterson anchored district since the beginning of 1997. It is likely we will see substantial outside spending coming into this district for next year’s campaign.
TN-7
While the special election to replace resigning Congressman Mark Green (R-Clarksville), has not yet been called and won’t be until the incumbent officially leaves office on July 20, more individuals are making decisions about running in the upcoming campaign.
While six Republicans and two Democrats have already announced, 2024 Democratic nominee and former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry indicated that she will not become a candidate in this election. State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) is the most recent Democrat to enter the race while state Rep. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) is the latest Republican to declare. State Rep. Jay Reedy (R-Erin) has already dropped out after initially announcing his candidacy.
TX-2
State Representative Steve Toth (R-Spring) announced that he will launch a GOP primary challenge against four-term Texas US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston). Rep. Toth is the seventh Republican to enter the congressional primary, but the only elected official. The field could change if the proposed congressional redistricting map alters the 2nd District, which is likely. For his part, Rep. Crenshaw, known for bluntly speaking his mind, said about Rep. Toth, “I don’t have much to say about Steve Toth—because there’s not much to say.”
Redistricting
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has added congressional redistricting to the special legislative session issue call, meaning we will see a proposed new map shortly. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) attacks the move as a partisan power grab and threatens to run an emergency referendum through the legislature to eliminate the state’s California Citizens Redistricting Commission so the politicians can redraw the Golden State congressional boundaries. The goal is to neutralize any GOP gains from a new Texas map. The early shots suggest that we will see an intense national early redistricting season soon develop.
GOVERNOR
Connecticut
Former state Rep. Josh Daniels filed papers with the state elections office to launch a Democratic primary challenge against Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont. It is expected the Governor will run for a third term, but he has not yet announced his 2026 political intentions. If Mr. Lamont runs, he will be a clear favorite for renomination and re-election.
Maine
Josh Bush, a nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to ex-President George W. Bush, has filed an exploratory committee for the 2026 Maine Governor’s campaign. Mr. Bush supported presidential candidate Nikki Haley in 2024, and says he hopes to deliver a moderate voice in the GOP primary should he decide to run. In the GOP race are former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Standish), University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Selectman Robert Wessels.
Former Republican state Senator Rick Bennett (I-Raymond) is running as an Independent. The major Democratic candidates are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland). Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New Jersey
A KA Consulting poll (6/24-27; 800 NJ likely and registered voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli by a 47-42% clip, which is just beyond the polling margin of error. This survey result is another indication that we can expect a highly competitive statewide campaign to culminate in early November. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Virginia
Fundraising numbers have been made public for the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race and Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a large resource advantage over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
According to the disclosure reports, Ms. Spanberger outraised Ms. Earle-Sears $4.3 million to $2.4 million during the 2nd Quarter. Her cash-on-hand advantage is even more vast. Ms. Spanberger holds $15.2 million in her campaign account as compared to $4.6 million for Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears. The latter candidate’s fortunes are likely to improve, however. As President of the State Senate, she was unable to raise funds while the legislature was in session during the early part of this year.
Wisconsin
It has been speculated upon that Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) is planning to run for a third term, but his 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers may suggest otherwise. Gov. Evers surprisingly reported raising just $760,000 since the beginning of this year. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, his pre-election year total for the commensurate period in 2021 was over $5 million. The Governor has yet to announce his political plans for 2026, only saying he would make a decision about seeking re-election “during the summer.”
STATE AND LOCAL
Illinois
According to the Chicago Tribune, State Comptroller Susana Mendoza (D) has indicated she will not seek re-election to her statewide post and instead will launch a 2027 challenge to Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. The controversial Mayor can expect a large number of opponents to file against him if he decides to seek re-election.
Orange County, FL
Former Florida US Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D), who served three terms in the House before retiring prior to the 2022 election, announced that she will return to elective politics with a run to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Jerry Demings (D) as the Orange County Executive. Mr. Demings is the husband of former Congresswoman and 2022 US Senate nominee Val Demings.
