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PRESIDENT
Donald Trump
"Former President" Donald Trump is now "President-elect" Donald Trump.
Mr. Trump scored an impressive comeback victory on Tuesday, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a 312-226 electoral vote margin. He is also on a trajectory to win the national popular vote. Once the western states fully report their vote totals, a popular vote determination will be made. As of press time, Trump's lead over Harris is more than 4.4 million votes, meaning his chances of prevailing on the popular vote scale are high.
Trump scored his victory by winning all seven battleground states, which include Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Though the Democrats pinned their hopes on what was formerly a "blue wall" for them – i.e., Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – all went red in 2024.
SENATE
Arizona
The Grand Canyon State hosts the lone outstanding Senate race. The open-seat contest currently features Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading retired news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R) by a 50-48% margin, with approximately 25% of the vote remaining to be counted. Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I) did not seek re-election. Though the race is closer than expected, Rep. Gallego is still predicted to prevail.
Florida
Despite polling suggesting that Sen. Rick Scott (R) was maintaining only an average three-point lead throughout most of the campaign cycle, the first-term incumbent and former Governor breezed to a 13-point win, largely on the back of a huge GOP voter registration gain that produced over 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats.
Maryland
In one of the few Democratic bright spots in the fight to control the Senate, Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks defeated former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to win the right to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Ms. Alsobrooks captured her seat with a 52-45% win over the former state chief executive, whom the Maryland electorate still views positively.
Michigan
One of the closest Senate races turned at the very end; US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) prevailed at the last, though she trailed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) for most of election night. Slotkin's 48.6 – 48.3% victory secures the open seat for the Democrats. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving four terms.
Missouri
Though certain polls began showing a closer-than-expected race in the lead-up to the election, Sen. Josh Hawley (R) recorded a substantial 56-42% victory over attorney and Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce (D), thus securing a second six-year term.
Montana
One of the conversion races that yielded the Republican Senate majority came in the Treasure State of Montana. As expected, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) defeated three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) by a convincing 53-45% victory margin. It was assumed that this would be the race that put the Republicans over the top in their quest for majority control, but it actually became the party's 52nd seat.
Though Sen. Tester raised more than $88 million for his campaign – second-best in the nation – it did him little good in his attempt to convince a majority of Montana voters to return him to DC for a fourth term.
Nebraska
Senator Deb Fischer (R), who had become embroiled in a tight and bitter race with Independent Dan Osborn, rebounded to score a 54-46% victory – and thus, a third six-year term – on Tuesday. Mr. Osborn attracted Democratic support when it became obvious that he was capable of conducting a competitive campaign from the Independent ballot line. For weeks this race looked tight, even though former President Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who ran to fill the unexpired portion of his appointed term, held strong double-digit leads.
Nevada
Silver State Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), who outspent her opponent by a 2.5 to 1 margin, barely hung on to defeat Army veteran Sam Brown (R) to win a second six-year term. Though not all of Nevada's votes have been tabulated, Sen. Rosen has been projected to win with a 13,000 vote margin from the better than 1.3 million ballots cast. This translated into a 47.7 – 46.7% victory margin after trailing in virtually the entire vote-counting process.
Ohio
Another veteran Democrat to fall on Tuesday was three-term Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). GOP businessman Bernie Moreno (R) successfully unseated Sen. Brown with a 50-46% victory margin. Though Sen. Brown led for most of the campaign, late in the race polling began detecting a move toward Mr. Moreno, and in fact the trend did lead to a Republican upset victory. Having raised over $91 million for his re-election campaign – more than any other non-presidential candidate in the nation – Brown failed to produce a victory in 2024.
Except for a brief two-year period in the early 1980s, Sen. Brown had been in Ohio elective office since 1975 – a career that included posts in the state House of Representatives; the state Senate; as Secretary of State; as a member of the US House of Representatives; and finally, the US Senate, to which he was first elected in 2006.
Pennsylvania
In another razor-thin contest, Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick defeated three-term Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) in the biggest upset of the Senate election cycle. Mr. McCormick's half-point victory propels the Senate Republicans to 53 seats, which is likely to be very important as they face a 2026 election cycle where they must defend 20 seats, as opposed to the Democrats' 13.
Pennsylvania delivered Trump his clinching state victory, and the Republicans gained two congressional seats in the state delegation; now, the Keystone State electorate has also delivered the Republicans a surprising Senate seat.
Texas
Senator Ted Cruz (R) – likewise thought to be in a difficult race for re-election, with polls showing his lead dwindling to one point at certain times – roared back to score a nine-point victory over US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). Though Mr. Allred attracted $80 million in campaign contributions – just $6 million short of Sen. Cruz's haul, according to the latest available campaign disclosure statements – it wasn't enough to unseat the incumbent Republican Senator. Cruz now moves on to a third term in the Senate, after winning what was an important race in keeping the GOP on track to secure the chamber majority.
West Virginia
In the first Democratic-held state to flip to the GOP on election night, Gov. Jim Justice (R), as expected, easily captured West Virginia's open Senate seat, posting a 68% vote margin. He will replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, who served most of his career as a Democrat before leaving the party to become an Independent.
Wisconsin
In another race where the Republican challenger was leading in most of the election night counting, Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) rebounded late to clinch a third term. Baldwin secured her approximately 30,000-vote win over businessman Eric Hovde (R), even though former President Trump won his own race for the Badger State with an identical vote margin.
HOUSE
House Status
It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.
Headed into the election, there were 55 open seats in the House. As of this writing, a total of just six seats are changing political party representation; the Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.
Of the six seats to be represented by a different party as of January, five result from new redistricting maps drawn in Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina. The only electoral pickup at this point comes in Michigan's 7th District, where Republican former state Senator Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.
Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.
California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 House races that have not yet been called. Of these 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 undecided races; at this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.
Outstanding Seats
The 13 seats that remain uncalled include:
Alaska At-Large (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D).
Two additional seats, CA-6 and CA-39, are technically uncalled, but the Democratic incumbents – Rep. Ami Bera and Rep. Jay Takano, respectively – are maintaining large leads that their challengers are unlikely to overcome.
GOVERNOR
National Recap
Election night featured 11 gubernatorial races, and while eight of the states will have new Governors, none flipped parties. The Republicans maintained their eight Governors' chairs, while the Democrats kept the three they were risking.
The eight newly-elected Governors include:
New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer (D-DE)
Senator Mike Braun (R-IN)
Lieutenant Gov. Mike Kehoe (R-MO)
Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Attorney General Josh Stein (D-NC)
US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND)
Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D-WA)
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R-WV)
The three Governors who won re-election on Tuesday are:
Greg Gianforte (R-MT)
Spencer Cox (R-UT)
Phil Scott (R-VT)
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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