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PRESIDENT
Nebraska
The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is dead. After a key state Senator announced his opposition, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) indicated that the votes to change the system before this election have not materialized. Governor Pillen was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status – the system used by 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the Governor's move, the legislature did not agree.
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska's status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could have been defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to affect the 2028 election. The state adopted its current electoral vote system in 1992.
Nevada
Noble Predictive Insights tested the Silver State electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 48-47%.
Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo's (R) victorious 2022 vote percentages for Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo's performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.
While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Mr. Trump's 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo's 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former President will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo's numbers in all regions, but again, especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.
SENATE
Fox News
The Fox News political division released its current ratings of the 2024 US Senate contests this week, which, for the most part, are aligned with other ratings data. The outlier on its list is its labelling of the Nevada race a toss-up. There is no current data suggesting such, since Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads in all published polls and actually had the biggest average advantage – nine points – of any competitive Senate race, according to the new FiveThirtyEight Senate ratings.
The Fox data shows Republicans gaining West Virginia and Montana, which would give the party a 51-seat majority. The other Fox ranks as a toss-up is Ohio, which appears accurate. Aside from Montana and West Virginia, the Ohio contest featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R) is the one that could be closing in Republicans' favor.
Maryland
Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland's Future super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), is reserving $18.2 million of advertising time between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks' rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.
Nebraska
Clearly, the most surprising Senate contest lies in Nebraska. Again, we see another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in a toss-up race with Independent Dan Osborn, while Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys an 18-point advantage and former President Trump tops VP Kamala Harris with a 16-point margin.
According to the new Survey USA poll conducted for the Osborn campaign, Mr. Osborn actually ticks ahead of Sen. Fischer, 45-44%. The Senator's problem is with women, where the cell segment numbers find her trailing 37-52%, even when both Sen. Ricketts and Mr. Trump have at least plurality support within the same unit. More attention will be paid to this race in the closing weeks.
Ohio
RMG Research recently went into the Ohio field with a flash poll and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45% edge, and 48-46% when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate were added to the decided total.
Though RMG has produced some questionable data recently, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Mr. Moreno's direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown's margin to be one, three, and two points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.
Tracking Polls
Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the contest trend favors over a sustained period. Thus, we see two major long-term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.
In Texas, the Morning Consult (MC) survey research firm has conducted a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. The MC data finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44%.
Meanwhile, in the Buckeye State, the Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49%.
In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing – only that the challengers' campaigns are on an upswing.
HOUSE
AK At-Large
For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich, III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, finds Mr. Begich posting a margin of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40%.
Under the state's top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election: Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Mr. Begich the race leader but under 50%, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.
California
The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) should not be considered viable.
In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon (D) leads in Rep. Barbara Lee's (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo's (D-Atherton) open 16th District.
Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man's main negative is his highly-publicized drunk driving conviction. The other GOP leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).
Democrats leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (a one-point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.
In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump, but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden's 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.
MT-1
The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer-than-expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) underperformed with his 50-46% win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll, again featuring the two contenders, shows another similarly-close result.
The Noble Predictive Insights survey finds Rep. Zinke leading Ms. Tranel by only a 47-43% margin, with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in its lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping the Democratic contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.
NY-17
One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler's (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley.
Challenging the freshman Congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D). The latest survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO, finds Rep. Lawler leading Mr. Jones, 46-43%, which, the polling analysis illustrates, is down from the Congressman's seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.
VA-7
Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia's 7th Congressional District.
The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43% tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41% spread in Mr. Vindman's favor.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire
Former US Senator Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32% over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different, according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll. The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ms. Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D). The results projects Ms. Craig to a 47-46% edge.
New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Governors Association released a new ad that compares Ms. Ayotte's 2016 statement that she would not vote for Trump with her current 2024 position, where she articulates support for him.
North Carolina
Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson's recent, highly-publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Robinson in what was once a close race.
A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times / Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Mr. Stein leading the Governor's race by 8, 5, 10 and 11 points, consecutively.
As Mr. Robinson's problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Mr. Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State Governor's mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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