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PRESIDENT
Iowa
Selzer & Company, the Hawkeye State's most accurate pollster, released a new survey this week showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-43%. The spread is being cast as a closing of the race in what has been a strong Trump state.
For comparison, Selzer & Company's Iowa poll from Sept. 17-19, 2020 showed a tie between Mr. Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D). The Republican would then move on to record an eight-point victory in the election later that year.
SENATE
Maryland
Emerson College and The Hill newspaper this week released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey. They found that Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error, with an advantage of 49-42%.
Mr. Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings – even among Democrats – must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Kamala Harris of any state. With potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot looming, it will be extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down-ballot elections.
Michigan
Since the beginning of September, we've seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who served in the House for 14 years.
The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield & Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28-Sept. 9, with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.
While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a varying support level. Each survey shows Slotkin leading, but her margins range from a high of seven points to an edge of just one point. The four-poll average shows a Slotkin lead of just over three points.
Missouri
The Missouri Senate race, largely ignored for most of the year, is attracting new attention. Three new polls, released almost simultaneously this past week, have returned widely-varying results.
The GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign produced a surprisingly close 50-46% margin in favor of Sen. Josh Hawley (R).
Change Research, meanwhile, showed a slightly larger Hawley advantage, 46-41%.
Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper, posted Sen. Hawley to a much larger twelve-point lead over Mr. Kunce, 52-40%.
Based on the Show-Me State's voting history over the past twelve years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will continue to draw increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.
Ohio
According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Through June 30, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Mr. Moreno's $15.8 million, with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.
Super PACs, however, have reduced the resource deficit for Moreno, and now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the GOP challenger. According to the Open Secrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus the $23 million spent to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the cryptocurrency-aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Mr. Moreno. Originally, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, the group announced that it would spend $12 million.
With the Ohio race getting closer, we can expect it to attract much more money in the lead up to the November election. The most recent poll, a Morning Consult tracking survey, finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43%.
Pennsylvania
Three new polls of the Pennsylvania Senate race were released this week. Though each show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading challenger Dave McCormick (R), the size of the Senator's margin is wide-ranging.
Quinnipiac University gives Sen. Casey his largest lead – nine points – at 52-43%. Insider Advantage and Suffolk University, however, see a much closer contest with five- and four-point spreads, respectively. IA posts a 49-44% split, while Suffolk sees a 47-43% margin.
HOUSE
CA-22
California's Fresno-area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican to the House of Representatives. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six-district series conducted for the House Majority PAC) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state Assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44%.
The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel Republicans would be a "rubber stamp" for a new Trump Administration and are concerned about abortion access. The tone of the responses suggests the question series falls into the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025 – a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party – to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category, as the ballot test shows.
CA-41
There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly-released early-September survey in California's 41st District can't be right.
RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period; the CA-41 study finds 16-term US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35% split.
Representative Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48% in 2022, must have more support than 35% in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.
IA-1
Iowa US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal, in that it contains the Iowa portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.
In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Representative Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46% victory margin. This week, Ms. Bohannan released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August that found the two candidates tied at 47% apiece. Representative Miller-Meeks only received 56% in the Republican primary, thus suggesting that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.
ME-2
Pan Atlantic Research this week released its early September Maine poll, which produced a surprising result. It showed three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Representative Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three point, 47-44%, margin.
The data look similar to the 2018 numbers that brought Mr. Golden to Congress. In that election, Mr. Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the potential to again be close, especially with former President Trump likely to carry the district as he has done twice before, it may very well end with Rep. Golden again winning through RCV, even though his opponent could have more original votes.
NJ-10
On Tuesday, voters in the Newark metropolitan area went to the polls to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who passed away toward the end of April. The winner of the special election was, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D). She captured 81% of the vote from a turnout that barely reached 30,000 voters. Upon certification of the results, Ms. McIver will immediately be sworn in to the House to complete the balance of the current term. She will then become the prohibitive favorite to win a full term in the November general election.
With Ms. McIver's election, the House party division count is now 220R - 212D, with three vacancies (2D and 1R). The other seats – in New Jersey, Texas, and Wisconsin – will all be filled concurrently with the Nov. 5 general election.
VA-2
A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area's 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot are Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D).
An August poll by Impact Research for the House Majority PAC, a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership, showed Rep. Kiggans with just a one-point edge over her challenger, 48-47%.
A more recent survey gives Ms. Kiggans some better news, however. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate and found the Congresswoman in stronger shape, with a 45-40% edge.
GOVERNOR
Indiana
A clearer picture is beginning to emerge for the open Indiana Governor's race, a contest that has attracted little in the way of national attention.
A new Emerson College survey shows Sen. Mike Braun (R), leading former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D) by a 45-34% margin spread. The result was more in line with expectations than last week's Lake Research Partners' poll, which showed Braun leading McCormick by just two points, 41-39%.
The Emerson College poll likely reflects the more accurate standing, since it is consistent with the numbers for President (Trump leading 57-40%) and the open US Senate race (Rep. Jim Banks (R) leading 47-33%).
In 2016, Ms. McCormick was elected to her statewide education office as a Republican. After leaving office, she switched her political party allegiance to the Democrats.
Ohio
Buckeye State Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates to succeed him.
Involving themselves in the Springfield, Ohio Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-Rep. and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialogue within the community. Each man is considered as a potential Republican gubernatorial candidate.
Other potential contenders are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther (D), and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval (D).
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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