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PRESIDENT
Alaska
Alaska should be a safe state for former President Donald Trump, but the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system, which allows those who support the last-place finisher to have a second vote, can alter the results in favor of a minority party candidate. If a contender records majority support in the original vote, the RCV rounds do not occur.
The new Alaska Survey Research poll projects Mr. Trump as holding a 50-43-7% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I). Though the Independent has attempted to withdraw in the battleground states and has subsequently endorsed Mr. Trump, he remains on the Alaska ballot.
The pollsters asked the second-round question, and even within the RCV system, it appears Mr. Trump would carry the state. With most of Mr. Kennedy's votes going to Trump in the second round, he would prevail 54-46%.
SENATE
Michigan
The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on an Oct. 2-8 Michigan voter poll for AARP, and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46% edge over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied at 46% apiece between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) – the top GOP Super PAC – to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time to aid Mr. Rogers. The new expenditure brings total SLF investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
Nebraska
The most surprising Senate race continues to be the Nebraska campaign between Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Independent Dan Osborn. Two new developments have occurred.
First, retired University of Nebraska championship head football coach and former US Congressman Tom Osborne cut a new ad for Sen. Fischer, in which he explains that confusion exists because he and her challenger share the same surname. He goes on to explain that he has never met Dan Osborn, but does know Sen. Fischer. Coach Osborne, who is revered in the state, then reiterates how important it is to re-elect Sen. Fischer.
Second, we have also seen conflicting polls in the past week, with both candidates releasing internal surveys placing them six points ahead of the other. Senator Fischer's campaign went on to publish another new poll to counter Osborn's latest release. The data is again from her campaign pollster, Torchlight Strategies, and it places Sen. Fischer seven points ahead, at 51-44%.
Nevada
Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is making a clear move to clinch her re-election, with a massive $20 million media buy from Oct. 11 through Nov. 5, according to the AdImpact organization. This, as The Down Ballot political blog reports, is four times the amount Republican Sam Brown has reserved.
Senator Rosen has been on the air nonstop since early in the campaign cycle. She has been able to overwhelm Brown with ads and appears to have successfully positioned herself for a comfortable re-election victory. At the beginning of the election cycle, this looked to be a potential Republican upset race, but now Sen. Rosen must be rated as a decided favorite.
Wisconsin
The Senate Leadership Fund has added $6.6 million to its ongoing Wisconsin media buy, signaling that the most recent publicly-released polls, which show a tightening of the race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) are verified through the organization's internal data.
The last six polls, spanning Sept. 27 through Oct. 9, have all returned single-digit results, with Sen. Baldwin's lead ranging from a high of five percentage points (Redfield & Wilton Strategies and the Research Company) to a low of just one point (Insider Advantage). It appears we will see another tight finish in the Badger State, where razor-thin results frequently occur during elections.
HOUSE
AZ-2
Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey this week, depicting freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) as locked in a surprising dead heat with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-2 as R+15. Representative Crane was one of the House leaders to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), thus becoming labeled as one of the Freedom Caucus activists.
This under-the-radar race could quickly become a campaign of note. According to the new Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report for the period ending Sept. 30, both Rep. Crane and Mr. Nez have more than $1 million cash-on-hand, with the incumbent commanding roughly $400,000 more than his challenger. Assuming this poll is accurate, Rep. Crane will have to increase his turnout operation in order to stave off this upset attempt.
CA-34
Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) has twice defeated Democratic movie executive David Kim's bids for office, notching up 53 and 51% re-election victories in consecutive election cycles, both double Democratic general elections under California's top two primary system.
Now, the United Democracy Project, a Super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has announced a $400,000 spend to help Rep. Gomez defeat Kim a third time.
In the past, Mr. Kim has advocated eliminating further US support for Israel.
Representative Gomez is favored for re-election, but it is likely this race will again be close.
CA-41
In 2022, veteran California US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) defeated former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D), 52-48%, in a Riverside County seat that the redistricting commission members made much more competitive. Now, a Global Strategy Group survey for the House Majority PAC sees the 2024 version of this race as a tie, with each candidate receiving 45% support.
The Calvert-Rollins contest is a key California race, as it will likely make the difference in determining the next House majority. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+7, so Rep. Calvert, running for a 17th term, should still be considered a slight favorite.
CA-49
Last week, we reported on a Survey USA poll of California's coastal 49th District that found three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a twelve-point margin, 53-41%. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with an 1892 organization survey showing a much different result.
According to the 1892 data, the gap separating the two candidates is only one point in Rep. Levin's favor, 46-45%. The nature of this district – FiveThirtyEight rates it as D+5 – so chances are the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite's position.
CT-5
The closeness of the 2022 western Connecticut congressional race between Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) and then-state Senator George Logan (R) surprised most political observers with its 50.4 – 49.6% finish. With Mr. Logan returning for a rematch, Emerson College, polling for three media entities, recently tested the race. According to the results, another close result can be expected. The ballot test shows Rep. Hayes leading Mr. Logan, 49-46%.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CT-5 as D+3. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the district as the 28th most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the voter history, plus the current polling, confirms that Rep. Hayes maintains only a slight edge.
GA-2
Georgia US Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had to fight off a close rival. Now, a co/efficient polling firm survey for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42%. This is a race that had not been considered competitive, and up to now it has drawn little in the way of national attention. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.
MI-7
A new Cygnal poll sees former state Senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett (R) taking a four-point lead, 47-43%, over former state Senator and ex-Whitmer chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D) in the open seat that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is risking to run for the Senate. The race is universally-viewed as a toss-up campaign.
In 2022, Rep. Slotkin defeated Mr. Barrett, 52-46%. Placing this district in the Republican conversion column would be a boon to party's hopes of holding their slim House majority.
NV-2
Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer's Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) also faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democratic rival.
Though a registered Republican, challenger Greg Kidd qualified by petition signature to run in this congressional race as an Independent. Mr. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.
There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot test is close. An expenditure the size of what Mr. Kidd is capable of making, however, can certainly move numbers, but Rep. Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Mr. Kidd's personal financial resources and commitment to self-funding his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.
TX-34
A new 1892 polling firm survey, conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee, finds GOP former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) trailing Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) by just a 49-46% margin in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17.
This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention, but it may be moving up the conversion priority chart. The 1892 poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic population. This district is 88% Hispanic and former President Trump, in this same poll, leads Vice President Harris, 49-47%, in a seat drawn to elect a Democrat.
WI-3
In a race that has been teetering since the August primary, a new Normington Petts survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee projects Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke to be taking a one-point, 49-48% lead over freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien); notably, she leads 51-43% within the all-important Independent voter segment.
Though Rep. Van Orden defeated then-state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D) in the last election, the final margin, 52-48%, was regarded as disappointing, as the national Democratic establishment didn't target the race and then-President Trump carried the seat in both 2016 and 2020. Prior to Mr. Van Orden's win, former Rep. Ron Kind had held the seat in the Democratic column for 26 years. This is now becoming a significant district to watch on election night.
VOTING
Target Early
The earliest national early-voting numbers are now published, and according to the Target Early / Target Smart website, the big change, when compared to 2020 totals, is the large increase in the non-affiliated participation rate. Nationally, a total of 4.39 million people have already cast their ballot, and a whopping 61.7% are from the non-affiliated category. This compares to their 52.9% total for all early votes cast in 2020.
Democrats, so far, comprise 24.4% of the early-vote total – down from their 27.0% share in the 2020 presidential election. But Republicans are further off, recording only 12.8% of the early vote as compared to their national total of 18.3% in 2020.
Naturally, these numbers will change drastically as the early-voting process proceeds toward the election. In 2020, out of more than 158 million people who participated in the election, a total of 85.9 million people (54.3% of total ballots cast) voted early.
At this preliminary stage, the ballots already cast represent 5% of the early-vote total from the 2020 presidential election. It is likely that the early-vote total will be lower in 2024, since the virtual universal mail vote in 2020 was largely a court-ordered emergency measure that won't be in effect this year.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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