If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
PRESIDENT
National
Echelon Insights conducted a national poll shortly after the 2024 election (11/11-14; 1,010 US registered voters; 394 self-identified Democrats; 394 self-identified Republicans; online) and while the results don't have much relevance for a nomination election four years in the future, the post-election survey does provide some interesting data points.
First, the partisan sample sizes are too low for a national poll to draw major conclusions, but the respective leading candidates for the 2028 party nominations are so large as to give us a snapshot into what people believe just after the current election. For the Republicans, Vice President-Elect JD Vance commands a big lead, capturing 37% support. His closest rivals – former presidential candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley – each capture 9% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next with 8%, and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) follow with 5% apiece.
The Democrats' favored candidate – the data point attracting the most attention – is Vice President Kamala Harris, who, despite her clear loss to President-Elect Trump, still commands the Democratic field with 41% support for another run. Trailing far behind are California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with 8% support, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro who posts 7%, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz draw 5% apiece.
SENATE
Massachusetts
Senator Ed Markey (D-MA), who has been in Congress since his first election to the House in 1976, announced that he will seek re-election to the Senate in 2026. Mr. Markey first won the Senate seat in a special election in 2013, replacing appointed Sen. Mo Cowan (D), who served as an interim after then-Sen. John Kerry (D) resigned to become Secretary of State in the second Obama Administration.
Senator Markey's biggest potential obstacle to re-election would be the Democratic primary. In 2020, he repelled a challenge from then-Rep. Joseph Kennedy, III, a race the Senator won with a 55-45% margin. Otherwise, expect Sen. Markey – who will be 80 years of age at the time of the 2026 election – to breeze through another re-election campaign.
Nebraska
Independent Dan Osborn attracted a great deal of national political attention in his race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) this election cycle. Without a Democratic nominee, Mr. Osborn was able to build a coalition that Democratic leaders backed, which helped make him a viable candidate. He ran hard and polling even showed him leading the Senator in several surveys; in the end, however, he lost, 53-47%.
When asked this week whether he might return to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) or Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), Mr. Osborn indicated that he would consider running again, but first must "return to work tomorrow and start paying bills."
Senator Ricketts, who, by a 63-37% margin, won the 2024 special election to serve the balance of the current term, will be on the ballot again in 2026 as he runs for the full six-year term. With Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas losing consecutive close elections to Rep. Bacon, the Democratic leadership will very likely look for a new candidate to oppose the five-term Congressman in 2026.
Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania Senate initial vote count is complete, and the unofficial final tally finds Republican David McCormick leading Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by a total of 16,404 votes, which is a considerable reduction from the first-reported count of just under 30,000.
After the recount got underway, the state Supreme Court reaffirmed its earlier ruling that certain ballots not meeting the legal standards would be disqualified, and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) followed by publicly affirming the court's decision.
This one-two punch led Sen. Casey to concede the race to Mr. McCormick, and brought an end to the recount. With McCormick now officially the state's Senator-Elect, the Senate divide has been finalized as 53R – 47D.
HOUSE
AK-At Large
The final Alaska votes, including the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) rounds, were released Wednesday night and Republican Nick Begich, III defeated two-term at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). In the current Congress, the Alaska seat is the most Republican House constituency to elect a Democratic Representative.
Before moving to the RCV rounds, Mr. Begich finished the initial count with 157,331 votes, or 48.7%, as opposed to Rep. Peltola's 149,763 votes, which translated to 46.3% support. The third- and fourth-place finishers, Alaska Independence Party nominee John Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner, attracted 12,751 votes (4.0%) and 3,323 votes (1.0%), respectively.
In the second Ranked Choice round, with both minor candidates eliminated, the new votes went hard for Begich – 64-33%. This pushed the challenger to 51.3% as compared to the incumbent's 48.7%. Thus, Mr. Begich clinched the election and fulfilled his victory declaration from over the weekend. The result will become final on Nov. 30 – the state's official certification deadline.
California
The final two uncalled US House races lie in the Golden State. In Northern California's 13th District, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) continues to hold a small lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D). The current published totals give Duarte a slight 194-vote edge, which is down from his earlier count of 227, but more votes will be added to the final tally under California's laborious vote counting system, which verifies every mail ballot.
In the Orange County-anchored 45th District, meanwhile, two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind Democratic attorney Derek Tran by a 480-vote margin. This district, too, has an undetermined number of outstanding ballots still to count. The fact that the Congresswoman is now behind is certainly not a good sign for her, thus Mr. Tran will probably soon be declared the winner, and then a recount will begin.
CA-21
Another California race was called this week, as Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) was again declared the winner over former FBI agent Michael Maher (R). This is the second consecutive election in which the two have faced each other, and the second time the final decision has gone into political overtime.
With only an estimated 4,500+ ballots left to count, Rep. Costa leads Maher by 9,047 votes, or 52.4 – 47.6%.
FL-1
Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected earlier this month. Though Mr. Gaetz stated that he "intends" not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress; therefore, he could return to the House.
Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main contenders are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Mr. Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38 – the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.
FL-6
Representative Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) was announced this week as President-Elect Trump's National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Mr. Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Mr. Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Mr. Waltz, who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.
Representative Waltz's District Director, retired Army Brigadier General Ernie Audino, has announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.
IA-1
Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan's (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results, which projected Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) the winner by 801 votes. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a slim margin, but the Congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts; she first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin.
The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers shortly before then.
OH-9
The final votes have been counted in Ohio's 9th Congressional District, and veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been re-elected to a 22nd term. Under Ohio law, an automatic recount is ordered for any election result within a half-percent. Until the final batch of votes were added to the total, the Congresswoman and her Republican opponent were separated by 0.3%. The unofficial final tally now finds Rep. Kaptur outpacing state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by a margin of 0.7%, or 2,382 votes (48.3 – 47.6%).
GOVERNOR
California
The University of California at Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies conducted one of its regular surveys of the Golden State electorate and, interestingly, asked a question about whether the respondents would support Vice President Kamala Harris for Governor of California in 2026. The survey was conducted from Oct. 22-29 – even before the 2024 election had concluded – and included 4,341 registered voters who participated through an online questionnaire.
It is possible that Ms. Harris' numbers today would be less than reported here, considering her subsequent defeat at the national level, though she did earn 58.7% of the vote in California.
In any event, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), an unsuccessful 2022 US Senate candidate, leads the 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary ballot test, which did not directly include Ms. Harris. Within the tightly-bunched group, Rep. Porter places first, with 13% preference over Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and GOP state Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle. The two have 12 and 11% support, respectively. In third place – all with 7% support – are a trio of Democrats: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
When asked if the respondents would consider supporting Ms. Harris, 46% said they would be likely (33%) or somewhat likely (13%) to do so. A total of 42%, however, said not too likely (6%) or not at all likely (36%).
New Jersey
Garden State US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy this week for the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.
Already in the Democratic primary are US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither US House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for Governor.
For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli – who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48% victory – is running again, as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.
STATES
Ranked Choice Voting
The final Alaska vote tallies found that supporters of the state's current Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system turned the election around and defeated a ballot initiative to repeal the system. The RCV proponents prevailed by just 664 votes statewide after trailing throughout the counting process. This means Alaska's current system will remain in place.
Nationally, however, Ranked Choice Voting initiatives did not fare well. The system was defeated in ballot propositions in four states: Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada. The idea was, however, adopted by a vote of the people in Washington, DC.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comentarios