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PRESIDENT
Kamala Harris
Rumors are surfacing in California that a group of Kamala Harris' supporters are beginning to test the waters for her to run for Governor of the Golden State in 2026. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the next election. Prior to her election as Vice President, Ms. Harris had been elected to the Senate from California, and had also been twice-elected as the state's Attorney General.
Lieutenant Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. In the top two primary system, it would not be surprising to see two Democrats advance into the general election. Ms. Harris won a similar campaign when she was first elected to the Senate in 2016, when she captured almost 62% of the vote against then-US Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County).
Popular Vote Count
All of the states – with the exception of Alaska, California, Oregon and Washington – have only a smattering of overseas votes left to be received and counted, with the Golden State, of course, having the largest contingent of remaining uncounted ballots.
California, because it verifies every signature for mailed ballots, always takes weeks to finalize its election results. Approximately 3.5 million votes are outstanding in the four states.
President-Elect Donald Trump's margin will recede when these states are fully counted, but he is likely to carry the popular vote with at least a 2 million-vote edge, and potentially secure majority support nationwide.
He currently sits at 50.11%, with over 75.7 million votes, while Kamala Harris tallies 48.0%, for a total of 72.65 million votes. The total turnout looks to exceed 154 million, making it the second-largest turnout in American history. Only 2020, with just over 158.5 million ballots cast, would be larger.
SENATE
Arizona
In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected last weekend. With 95% of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 50.1% support, while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, recorded a better-than-expected 47.7%.
The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 79,102 votes.
With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania post-recount, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.
Florida
Sunshine State Sen. Marco Rubio (R) this week was chosen to serve as the country's next Secretary of State. The Senator will resign his current position just two years into his third six-year term; Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then be charged with replacing Rubio through appointment. The new Senator will then have the opportunity of running in 2026 to fill the balance of the current term, and then again for a full six-year stint in 2028.
Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.
With President-Elect Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments – including Florida Congressmen Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor and Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as Attorney General – none of the state's 18 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment, since the new House majority is expected to be razor-thin.
Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appears to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva.
Ohio
On Tuesday, President-Elect Trump appointed GOP former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to co-direct, along with Elon Musk, a new official government efficiency operation; Ramaswamy has since confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect JD Vance in the US Senate.
Mr. Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as Vice President on Jan. 20. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Because Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed Senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028, when the seat next comes in-cycle.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt announced late this week that the US Senate results featuring Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) will move to a mandated recount because the difference between the two leaders is less than half a percentage point. Under Pennsylvania election law, recounts are mandated when the vote margin is less than a half point.
Mr. Schmidt says the final count in each county must be completed before the recount begins – no later than Nov. 20. The political overtime count must conclude by Nov. 26, with the final report sent to the Secretary's office on Nov. 27.
The ruling is somewhat curious in that the counties have apparently not finished the counting process, so it is presumed that should the final unofficial count grow to a margin greater than half a percent, the recount will be cancelled.
The reported results and percentages are: McCormick: 3,380,310 (48.93%); Casey 3,350,972 (48.50%). The McCormick margin is 29,338 votes.
2026 Campaign Decisions
A pair of Senators, thought to be either on the retirement list or among those running for another office, have both announced they will seek re-election in 2026.
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), completing her 28th year in the Senate, announced that she will run for a sixth term in the next election. Speculation was brisk that she would opt for retirement.
Rumors that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) would run for his state's open Governor's position in 2026 were also quelled this week when Sen. Tuberville announced his plan to seek re-election for a second term.
HOUSE
Alaska
With so many ballots still outstanding in Alaska from those mailed but not received; the overseas ballots; the four unreported precincts; and the provisional ballots from around the state; it is likely that we won't have a projection on the at-large Alaska House race until Nov. 20, the deadline for the state to report the unofficial final results. The Alaska election certification deadline is Nov. 30.
At this point, Mr. Begich has a 9,435-vote lead over US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). He stands at 49.1% of the counted vote versus Rep. Peltola's 46.0%.
The number of uncounted or unreceived ballots could be as high as 44,000 votes.
Should no candidate receive 50% plus one vote once the final count is announced, the Ranked Choice Voting round would then begin. To overcome Mr. Begich's lead, Rep. Peltola will have to secure at least 60% of the remaining votes. Ranked Choice could change the outcome, but currently Mr. Begich appears to be in the driver's seat.
California
The remaining California races yet to be called are the following: District 13 (Rep. John Duarte (R) vs. Adam Gray (D)); District 21 (Rep. Jim Costa (D) vs. Michael Maher (R)); and District 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel (R) vs. Derek Tran (D)).
Representative Costa leads by 5,539 votes. He is expected to soon be declared the winner.
Representative Duarte leads his race by 3,765 votes. Assuming the counties will break in the outstanding vote category as they did within the counted votes, projections suggest that Rep. Duarte will break even within the latter category, thus securing re-election.
Representative Steel leads by only 349 votes. With as many as 26,000 votes yet to be counted, such a thin margin means this election is up for grabs.
CA-27
Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7% margin in the state's 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County.
The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district, making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.
Representative Garcia first won a differently-configured district, numbered 25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Mr. Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).
CA-47
Democratic state Senator Dave Min (D-Irvine) has recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state Assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R), capturing California's open 47th District by a margin of 50.9 – 49.1%, according to a projection made earlier in the week.
Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6, the presidential election year turnout model was too much for Mr. Baugh to overcome.
The Min victory means only four uncalled races remain – three of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 212D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.
CO-8
Freshman Colorado US Representative Yadira Caraveo (D-Thurston) became the eighth incumbent to lose his or her seat as her Republican opponent, state Representative Gabe Evans (R-Westminster), was declared the 2024 election winner.
Mr. Evans, also an Army veteran and former police officer, claims the politically marginal 8th District by just under a percentage point in a northern Centennial State seat that was designed to produce close elections.
The 8th District, which was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 census, was placed north and northeast of Denver and includes the cities of Greeley, Thurston and Westminster. It is a highly marginal political district and, for the second time since the boundaries were adopted, has produced a winner whose victory margin was under one percentage point.
FL-1
In a developing story, President-Elect Trump said Wednesday that he will nominate controversial Florida US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the next US Attorney General. Mr. Gaetz then immediately announced his resignation from the House.
With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political "gimbal lock" that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body.
OR-5
Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who won a plurality vote victory.
With 96% of the vote counted, Ms. Bynum clinched the election with a 47.7 to 45.2% margin, or a vote spread of 9,575 votes out of the 386,225 counted ballots.
The incumbent loss was not a surprise, as OR-5 is rated as D+3 by the FiveThirtyEight data organization, and ranked as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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