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SENATE
LouisianaÂ
Five-term Louisiana US Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) announced on Thursday that he will not challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in the state's new partisan primary system scheduled to take effect next year.
This is the first time Sen. Cassidy will face a partisan Republican primary. Last year, the state legislature, at the behest of Gov. Jeff Landry (R), changed the state law to reinstitute a partisan primary structure for certain offices, including all federal positions. Previously, all candidates were listed only on the general election ballot. If no one received majority support in a particular race, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held during the first week in December.
Should President Trump endorse against Sen. Cassidy, a possibility because the Senator voted for the second Trump impeachment, and a large primary field forms the chances for a runoff election increase. Incumbents who are forced into a runoff generally fare poorly.
MinnesotaÂ
Seventh District US Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Regal) announced this the week that she will seek re-election in 2026 and not enter the open US Senate race.Â
All four of Minnesota's Republican congressional members, Reps. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano) and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown), along with Ms. Fischbach, have all declined the opportunity to run in the open statewide race. Therefore, the eventual Republican nominee will not be coming from the congressional delegation.
For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen are announced candidates. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is a potential contender. Governor and former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz has said he will not enter the Senate contest. Senator Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Democrats are favored to hold the seat, but the battle could turn competitive.
MontanaÂ
Little has been discussed about potential challenges to two-term Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), but he has now drawn an opponent for the general election. Former state Representative Reilly Neill announced that he will compete for the Democratic Senate nomination with the goal of challenging Mr. Daines in the general election. Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, Sen. Daines will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
New HampshireÂ
The state's two Democratic US Representatives, Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and freshman Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), are confirming they are considering opposing each other in a battle to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).Â
Neither has made a formal announcement and the expected ultimate decision whether to run from former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) will likely go a long way toward determining exactly who will risk a current political position to enter the US Senate race. If the legislature and Governor decide to move the primary to an earlier date from its traditional September post, as is being considered, we will see quicker decisions being made.
North CarolinaÂ
It appears that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has put a freeze on US Senate speculation for at least two months. Mr. Cooper just began an eight-week fellowship at Harvard University and says he will not consider his political future until his commitment to the school is complete.Â
For his part, ex-US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) says he will run for the Senate but will step aside if Mr. Cooper decides to run. The former Governor is also reportedly contemplating a 2028 presidential candidacy. Incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) has announced he will seek a third term in 2026.
HOUSE
AZ-7Â
Governor Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson). The party primaries, in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing filling a congressional vacancy, will be held on July 15, with the special general election on Sept. 23. The candidate filing deadline with be April 14.
Therefore, the 7th District will likely remain vacant until Sept. 25. Democrats will hold the seat, and the late Congressman's daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Ms. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father's funeral on March 26. Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election.
NJ-9Â
Sales consultant Billy Prempeh (R), who held New Jersey freshman Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) to a surprisingly close 51-46% margin in November, says he will return for a re-match in 2026. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NJ-9 as D+17, so it will be interesting to see if this seat moves to a more competitive position on the National Republican Congressional Committee's offensive target list.
NY-21Â
New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is finally going to get her Senate confirmation vote to become US Ambassador to the United Nations. The House leadership asked that the confirmation be postponed because her vote was needed in the razor-thin Republican majority. The confirmation procedure has been scheduled for April 2, the day after two Republican congressional candidates will win special elections to increase the internal GOP advantage.
NC-5Â
Retired newspaper reporter and 2024 congressional nominee Chuck Hubbard (D) announced that he will return to again challenge Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). In November, Rep. Foxx was re-elected with a 59-41% count. The bigger question may be whether the veteran incumbent and chair of the House Rules Committee, who will be 83 years of age at the next election, will seek a 12th term.
TX-18Â
Though the special election to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward. Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) announced that he will enter the special election.Â
Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's (D) daughter. Ms. Carter represented the seat after her mother died and before Mr. Turner's term began. Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) also announced her candidacy.
Governor Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point, but has no legal time requirement to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we could see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special general election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.
GOVERNOR
ColoradoÂ
While the Republicans will be severe underdogs in the 2026 open Governors' race, the party nomination appears valuable. A third sitting GOP office holder announced his gubernatorial candidacy during the week. Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell joins state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida) and state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) in the field hoping to replace term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).Â
On the Democratic side, observers are waiting for US Sen. Michael Bennet to soon announce his own gubernatorial candidacy.
STATE AND LOCAL
New HampshireÂ
New Hampshire is one of four states – Delaware, Massachusetts and Rhode Island being the others – that still hold September primaries. Though the Granite State hosts the "First in the Nation" primary during presidential elections, it is one of the last to nominate its state and federal candidates.Â
This could be changing. A bill in the legislature that Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports would schedule the primary earlier, thus alleviating the complaints that most have about a too short general election cycle. Some want to move to August, others, like Gov. Ayotte, prefer June. It remains to be seen if the New Hampshire leaders will reverse their long standing late primary tradition.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTYÂ WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty