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SENATE
Michigan
The Target Insyght data organization this week released a new Wolverine State political survey, and the results are head-scratching, to say the least.
The March 3-6 survey of 600 Michigan registered voters produced results that are difficult to understand. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) shows a 52:43% positive-to-negative personal favorability index, while former Congressman and 2024 US Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers is found with a rather dismal and inexplicable 23:46% index. This, from a sample half of which is comprised of Republican voters.
Yet, when the same sample was polled for a hypothetical open Senate contest between Gov. Whitmer and former Rep. Rogers, the ballot test result projected only a one point 42-41% edge for the Democratic Governor. Comparing the favorability indexes for each candidate with the head-to-head ballot test result produces a highly inconsistent conclusion that brings the overall poll accuracy factor into question.
While Gov. Whitmer is giving no indication that she will run for Senate, she is taking steps to prepare a national campaign for the 2028 presidential cycle. A more likely Democratic Senate contender was thought to be former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, but he announced late this week that he would not run. Therefore, the most likely early Democratic Senate candidate is Attorney General Dana Nessel, who is ineligible to seek re-election to her present position.
Minnesota
Former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen (D) announced that she will enter the battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Already in the race is Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). Several more candidates from both parties are expected to join the fray. Governor Tim Walz (D) for a time considered a Senate bid but has since declined. It is probable that he will seek a third term as Governor. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but Republicans are planning to heavily target the race.
New Hampshire
Three-term New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has announced that she will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year career in elective politics, counting her time as Governor and in the state Senate. Ms. Shaheen is now the fourth Senator, three of whom are Democrats, who will not seek re-election in 2026. The Shaheen decision is not particularly surprising. The Senator had not committed to running again and repeatedly said she would decide at a later date.
Previously, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) indicated he was not interested in running for the Senate, but he recently stated that he might be reconsidering his position. Now that the seat will be open, Republican leaders will engage a "full court press" to recruit the former four-term Governor into the Senate race. For the Democrats, the leading prospective candidate appears to be four-term 1st District US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).
HOUSE
AZ-7
Veteran Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) sadly passed away late this week, succumbing to lung cancer. He is the second House member within ten days to lose his life. Mr. Grijalva was first elected to the House in 2002 after serving on the Pima County Board of Supervisors and the Tucson Unified School District. He rose to chair the House Resources Committee when the Democrats held the majority. In total, Mr. Grijalva served a combined 45 years in public office.
By Monday, Gov. Hobbs must set the schedule for the replacement primary election sometime between July 11 and July 24, which will most likely be Tuesday, July 15. The special general then must be scheduled no fewer than 70 days after the primary and no more than 80 days. This means the seat will remain vacant until a winner is sworn into office after either a Sept. 23 or Sept. 30 special general election.
FL-19
Ex-Illinois state Senator Jim Oberweis (R), who ran unsuccessfully for the US House in Illinois and statewide several times, announced that he will attempt to succeed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples), who is running for Governor. The Ft. Myers/Cape Coral anchored seat is safely Republican, so the GOP primary will determine Mr. Donalds' congressional successor.
Another potential candidate who represented a constituency in another state, former New York Congressman Chris Collins (R), is also indicating that he may launch a campaign for this particular congressional seat.
ME-2
Former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), who has since moved to Florida is reportedly considering returning to Maine to challenge US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Former NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault held Rep. Golden to a 50.3 – 49.6% re-election victory in November. He, too, is expected to return for a re-match. For his part, Rep. Golden may enter the open Governor's race, thus leaving the state's northern congressional seat, which President Trump carried in all three of his elections, open.
MN-1
Minnesota US Rep. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm) early this week quelled any speculation that he would run for the state's open Senate seat. Representative Finstad announced that he would seek re-election to a third full term in the House.
Mr. Finstad was first elected in a 2022 special election after Republican incumbent Jim Hagedorn passed away. He then won re-election to a full term later that year and again last November. After winning the initial special election with 50.7% of the vote, Mr. Finstad has posted an average victory margin of 56.2% in the southern Minnesota seat that Gov. Tim Walz (D) previously represented.
NY-4
It appears we will see Round 3 between current Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) and former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R). The former Congressman, whom Rep. Gillen unseated with a 51-49% victory margin, announced that he will return for a re-match next year. In 2022, Mr. D'Esposito defeated Ms. Gillen 52-48% in an open seat campaign.
WI-3
Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Wisconsin US Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) to a 51-49% re-election victory, announced this week that she will return for a 2026 re-match. We can again expect this race to be competitive, but Rep. Van Orden will likely have a better advantage in what will be his second re-election campaign.
GOVERNOR
California
Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D), who risked her seat in 2024 to run unsuccessfully for the Senate, announced that she will seek the open Governor's post in 2026. She previously sounded a conciliatory note toward former Vice President Kamala Harris. As reported in the Los Angeles Times, Ms. Porter said in interviews that the 2024 presidential nominee and former California Senator's entry into the Governor's race would have a "field clearing effect."
Now, however, it is unclear if she will step aside should Ms. Harris decide to run. The former VP said she will likely make a determination about running for Governor sometime in the summer.
Florida
The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on the 2026 open Republican gubernatorial primary campaign. Their Feb. 26-27 poll of 600 Florida likely Republican primary voters sees Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) jumping out to a slight 34-30% lead over First Lady Casey DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.
When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, meaning President Trump backing Rep. Donalds and Gov. DeSantis supporting his wife, the Congressman assumes a 38-28% advantage over Ms. DeSantis with Mr. Simpson increasing to 5% support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12.
Michigan
Lieutenant Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D), as expected, announced his gubernatorial candidacy this week, joining Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the Democratic primary field. The March 3-6 Target Insyght general election poll, as covered in the Michigan Senate section above, sees Secretary of State Benson topping US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), 42-30-21% in a statewide ballot test.
This is an odd result since one would think Mr. Duggan, a Democrat until he announced as an Independent to run for Governor, would be drawing more from the Democratic base, and especially so in Detroit, rather than the Republican sector. Therefore, this split, meaning the Republican candidate is only getting 30% when the sampling universe is split 50/50 between Democratic and Republican respondents, seems unrealistic.
New York
Siena College released a statewide New York poll that finds Gov. Kathy Hochul in only moderately good position for renomination in the 2026 Democratic primary. According to the Siena results, Gov. Hochul would lead potential Democratic rivals Antonio Delgado, the state's Lt. Governor who has already said he will not seek re-election with Hochul, and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx).
The ballot test projects Gov. Hochul ahead of Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres, 46-11-10%. The numbers suggest enough strength to win a plurality primary, but for an incumbent not to reach majority support within a party primary sampling cell is a sign of political weakness.
STATE AND LOCAL
New Jersey
Things are changing in the Garden State, where Sen. Andy Kim (D) has successfully challenged in court the state's procedure of placing party-endorsed candidates on a separate ballot page from their opponents.
With the state and county parties for both Democrats and Republicans virtually controlling the ballot, the procedure made it extremely difficult for a challenger to upset a party-endorsed primary candidate.
In response to Sen. Kim's win in court, the New Jersey General Assembly recently passed legislation to do away with the procedure. Now, the state's ballot will look similar to those of its peers.
Wisconsin
In the critical April 1 Wisconsin State Supreme Court race – which will determine the majority on the high judicial panel and likely have a direct effect upon redistricting, a RMG Research poll has found incumbent Justice Susan Crawford (D) leading Republican Brad Schimel, 45-37%. When they were identified as liberal and conservative the Crawford lead decreases to 44-40%. Both parties are heavily targeting this campaign.
Boston
It appears that Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (D) could be facing a football-related tandem in her re-election bid. Already in the race against her is Democratic businessman Josh Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, and polling shows that he could become competitive since the controversial incumbent is not overwhelmingly popular.
Stories surfaced this week that developer Thomas O'Brien (D), brother of Boston College head football coach and former New England Patriots offensive coordinator and Houston Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, also is testing his prospects as a potential mayoral candidate.
All contenders would participate in a non-partisan September 2025 citywide primary. The top two finishers, if no one receives majority support, would then advance to a November runoff.
Detroit
Former Detroit Police chief James Craig announced that he will enter the city's open Mayor's race this year. Mr. Craig served as Detroit's law enforcement head from 2013 through 2021. He launched a campaign for Governor in 2022 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to a lack of valid petition signatures. He briefly launched a US Senate campaign in 2024 but withdrew when former Rep. Mike Rogers became the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination.
Mayor Mike Duggan is not running for a third term. Instead, he is running for Governor as an Independent. The open nonpartisan mayor's race will attract a large field. The early leader appears to be City Council President Mary Sheffield. The field will solidify at the April 22 candidate filing deadline for the Aug. 5 primary election. All candidates will compete in the primary with the top two finalists advancing to the general election on Nov. 4.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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