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SENATE
Arkansas
Sen. Tom Cotton (R), originally elected to the Senate in 2014 after serving one term in the House, announced that he will run for re-election next year. The decision is not surprising, and Sen. Cotton is not expected to have major primary or general election opposition.
Iowa
Former Iowa state Senator Jim Carlin announced that he will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst in next year's Republican primary. Mr. Carlin served both in the Iowa House and Senate but launched a very ineffective primary run against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) in 2022. He lost by a landslide 73-27% vote. His chances against Sen. Ernst aren't much better. Also in the Republican Senate primary is podcast host and Navy veteran Joshua Smith.
Minnesota
Governor and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz (D) has reportedly made the decision not to seek the open US Senate seat, but could still run for re-election. Though many are considering the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the only officially announced candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Freshman Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-Wayzata) is now saying that she will not run for the Senate.
The next major Minnesota figure to decide whether to enter the race is US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) who reportedly was waiting for Walz to make a decision. Without the Governor in the Senate race, the odds of Rep. Craig becoming a statewide candidate are now greatly enhanced.
HOUSE
AZ-1
Dr. Amish Shah (D), a former state Representative who held US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a 52-48% victory margin last November says he will return to seek a re-match in 2026.
Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his 1st District congressional candidacy. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Senator John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be highly competitive.
AZ-2
Former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez (D) whose 55-45% loss to US Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) was closer than expected in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, announced that he will return to run again in 2026. Mr. Nez raising over $5.4 million put him on the political map. This will be regarded as a much more competitive race in 2026.
MI-10
Army veteran, local law enforcement officer, and former state House of Representatives candidate Alex Hawkins (D) announces that he will run for what is likely an open and politically marginal Detroit suburban 10th District next year as will two-time Democratic nominee Carl Marlinga.
It is widely believed that two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will enter the open Governor's race where polling casts him with a wide lead for the Republican nomination. Especially if Rep. James does not seek re-election, MI-10 becomes a top Democratic national conversion target.
NY-17
More activity is occurring in New York's Rockland and Westchester Counties anchored 17th Congressional District where two-term incumbent Republican Mike Lawler is expected to run for Governor.
Last week, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson (D) announced her candidacy, and this week former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), who lost 52-46% against Rep. Lawler in November, endorsed Ms. Davidson. There had been speculation that Mr. Jones would run again, but his early endorsement of Ms. Davidson indicates that he will not be a congressional candidate in 2026.
New York's 17th CD will be a top national Democratic conversion opportunity particularly in an open seat situation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7.
PA-7
Last week, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure (D) announced he would not seek re-election to his local post and this week declares his congressional candidacy. He will enter the Democratic nomination battle to face freshman US Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie).
The new Congressman unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November. Some speculation remains that Ms. Wild may return in an attempt to reclaim the seat she lost in November.
The 7th District, which includes all of Northampton, Lehigh, and Carbon Counties and a small part of Monroe County, is politically marginal. We can expect another close election here in 2026 irrespective of who eventually becomes the Democratic nominee.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey of the open Republican gubernatorial field, and the results indicate that the early cycle is a free-for-all. The Feb. 11-13 poll sees the top three candidates all hovering just below 15% support. Representative Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and conservative activist Charlie Kirk are tied with 14% apiece.
Businesswoman and former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, who has President Trump's endorsement, follows with 11% preference. Only Rep. Biggs and Ms. Robson are announced gubernatorial candidates.
Colorado
Term-limited Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) may not enter the open Governor's campaign, as originally expected. Apparently, she may run for the open Attorney General position instead, according to an analysis from The Down Ballot political blog columnists. Incumbent Attorney General Phil Weiser (D), also term-limited in his position, is running for Governor because incumbent Jared Polis (D) is likewise ineligible to seek re-election.
Florida
Representative Byron Donalds (R-Naples) officially kicked off his gubernatorial campaign, and he could be in the driver's seat. Despite Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' wife Casey potentially becoming a 2026 gubernatorial candidate, President Trump still forged ahead and officially endorsed Mr. Donalds in next year's open Republican gubernatorial primary.
The move suggests the presidential rift between Messrs. Trump and DeSantis has still not completely healed since the Governor challenged the President in the 2024 Republican primary. Therefore, the President decided to support his long time loyal backer, Rep. Donalds. The eventual Republican nominee will begin the general election with a decided advantage. Governor DeSantis cannot seek a third term under Florida election law.
New Mexico
Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (D) last week indicated he was considering running for Governor, and this week filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee. The favorite for the Democratic nomination is former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland. Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The eventual Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in an open general election.
New Jersey
A KA Consulting survey conducted for the Kitchen Table Conservatives super PAC found former Assemblyman and 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli leading conservative radio host Bill Spadea 42-13% in this year's June 10 New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary.
The survey, administered by GOP pollster and former Trump White House advisor Kellyanne Conway, shows three other candidates in the low single digits, while 35% are undecided. A January Emerson College poll gave Ciattarelli a much smaller 26-13% lead on Spadea, with 47% of primary voters saying they had yet to make up their minds.
Six candidates, including two US House members and three local Mayors, are vying for the Democratic nomination. Governor Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York
Lieutenant Governor and former Congressman Antonio Delgado (D) announced this week that he will resign his statewide position. This lends further credence to the rumor that Mr. Delgado will soon launch a Democratic primary challenge to the woman who appointed him Lt. Governor, incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul. Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has also been analyzing his chances of opposing the Governor in the party primary.
Both men entering the race, however, will likely divide the anti-Hochul vote, allowing her to probably win with only a small plurality of voters. Such a nomination fight and finish would likely give the ensuing Republican nominee, quite possibly US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), an enhanced chance of potentially pulling an upset in the 2026 general election.
Ohio
Entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) officially launched his Ohio gubernatorial campaign this week and President Trump issued an endorsement of his former opponent. Three early Republican primary polls found Mr. Ramaswamy holding big leads particularly if he were to win the Trump endorsement.
Public Policy Polling tested the Ohio general electorate and the data organization found Mr. Ramaswamy topping former Congressman, 2020 presidential candidate, and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan, 48 -42%. Against former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D), however, Mr. Ramaswamy falls into a basic dead heat, trailing 44-45%.
The PPP poll found Mr. Ramaswamy holding a 41:38 positive favorability index, while President Trump recorded 53:43%. Governor Mike DeWine (R), however, was the only tested figure to record an upside-down index: 34:46%. Ms. Acton posted a 31:27% ratio, and Mr. Ryan a similar 31:26% positive to negative rating.
Virginia
The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which has been known in the past for releasing anomalous survey results, fielded its study of 690 likely Virginia general election voters over the Feb. 17-20 period. The Roanoke ballot test sees former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R) by a 39-24% spread, which appears to underestimate not only Ms. Sears' support, but also Ms. Spanberger's.
Furthermore, their ballot test results are inconsistent with the other five Virginia Governor polls conducted and publicized since the 2024 election. The latter surveys, from five different pollsters, cast Spanberger and Sears in a dead heat (co/efficient survey research firm), Spanberger plus 1 (Emerson College), plus 3 (Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy), plus 5 (Christopher Newport University), and Spanberger plus 10 (Virginia Commonwealth University).
Two former state legislators, ex-Delegate Dave LaRock and previous state Senator Amanda Chase, both say they will enter the Republican gubernatorial primary to oppose Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears from her political right. Their challenge should not thwart Ms. Sears' prospects to win the party nomination, however.
STATE AND LOCAL
Buffalo, NY
State Sen. Sean Ryan (D) won the Erie County Democratic Party endorsement over Acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon during the week. Former Mayor Byron Brown (D), who served 18 years in the position, resigned to become president and CEO of the Western Regional Off-Track Betting organization. The party endorsement matters in New York, and their help possibly gives Sen. Ryan the inside track toward winning this year's mayoral election.
Detroit
Prominent Detroit pastor Solomon Kinloch (D) this week announced his mayoral candidacy, while former state House Speaker Joe Tate (D) has decided not to run.
A Douglas Fulmer & Associates poll posts City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) to a firm lead with 34% preference. Ex-police chief James Craig (R) outpaces former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins 20-12% for second position. Mr. Craig is not yet a candidate. Pastor Kinloch is a distant fourth with an initial 5% preference factor. Three-term incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan is running for Governor as an Independent.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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