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PRESIDENT
President Trump
The Inauguration of President Donald J. Trump occurred, as scheduled, at 12:01 pm on Jan. 20. Mr. Trump became the 47th President of the United States, and the second man in history to lose re-election only to return four years later to recapture the office. In 1892, President Grover Cleveland, who was the 22nd President but defeated for re-election in 1888, returned to the office and became the 24th President. Mr. Trump will be ineligible to run in 2028, thus paving the way for open nomination fights in both parties.
SENATE
Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis (R) chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio as one of Florida's two United States Senators. She took the Oath of Office on Jan. 21, soon after Mr. Rubio was confirmed to his national position and resigned from the Senate.
Senator Moody must now run to fill the balance of the term in the 2026 election and will again be on the ballot in 2028 when her Class III Senate seat again comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.
Massachusetts
Representative Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) is not closing the door on challenging Sen. Ed Markey for the Democratic Senate nomination next year. Senator Markey, who will be 80 years of age at the time of the next election, has already said he will seek re-election to a third full term in 2026.
Mr. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and is the second-longest-serving current member of Congress – behind only Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), who has been an elected member of Congress since 1975.
Representative Auchincloss, should he run for the Senate, would likely do so from a more moderate perch than Sen. Markey, who is one of the Senate's most liberal members. Age would be a major factor in the campaign, as well. Mr. Auchincloss is 36 years old and was first elected to the House in 2020.
Ohio
Governor Mike DeWine (R) selected Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to replace Vice President J.D. Vance (R) as one of Ohio's US Senators. Like new Senator Ashley Moody (R-FL), who replaced Marco Rubio, Sen. Husted took the Oath of Office on Jan, 21. Senator Husted also must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year term since this seat, too, is in the Third Class of Senate cycles.
HOUSE
FL-7
Representative Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who days ago said that he will challenge whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis chose for the US Senate position to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is slightly changing his tune. While maintaining that challenging new Sen. Ashley Moody in the 2026 Republican primary is still a possibility, he now says that he will conduct more research and better test the political waters before making a final decision.
GA-13
State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) this week announced that he will enter the 13th District Democratic congressional primary in 2026. Current incumbent David Scott (D-Atlanta), who was first elected in 2002, has been experiencing health issues to the point that the Democratic Steering Committee removed him as Ranking Member of the House Agriculture Committee late last year. Mr. Scott's staff indicates the Congressman is planning to seek re-election, and Sen. Jones says he will run irrespective of the incumbent being in the race.
Senator Jones was first elected to the Senate in 2004 and has won ten succeeding elections. Georgia is one of the states where its Senators serve two-year terms. At this point and regardless of public comments, Rep. Scott is one of the members viewed as most likely to retire. Therefore, the 13th District running as an open seat in 2026 remains a possibility.
OK-1
Though Rep. Kevin Hern's (R-Tulsa) northern Oklahoma congressional district is safely Republican, Tulsa School Board Member John Croisant (D), this week announced that he will mount a challenge for the seat in 2026. Representative Hern was viewed as a potential candidate in the open Governor's race next year but has already announced his plans to remain in the House because "the small GOP majority makes every seat extremely important."
Regardless of who his '26 Democratic opponent happens to be, Rep. Hern will again be favored to win a strong victory. In 2024, his re-election percentage was 60.4%. In his four US House elections, Mr. Hern has averaged 61.1% of the vote.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Five-term Arizona US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) confirmed this week that he is interested in running for Governor next year, ostensibly to oppose incumbent Katie Hobbs (D), who is presumed to be preparing a run for a second term. Mr. Biggs, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, says he "knows what Arizona needs."
Governor Hobbs generally has low job approval ratings and President Trump's victory margin of just under six percentage points suggests that the Republicans are rebounding in the state, which was once one of the most Republican domains in the country. Expect the 2026 Governor's race here to become highly competitive.
Colorado
State Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) announced that he will enter the open race for Governor next year.
Mr. Bottoms is one of the more conservative members of the Centennial State House, so it is likely he will have a difficult time winning statewide as the Colorado electorate continues to move decidedly leftward. Mr. Bottoms becomes the first Republican to enter the 2026 race. Attorney General Phil Weiser announced his intention to compete for the Democratic gubernatorial election earlier in the month. Crowded fields are expected to emerge in both parties. Governor Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Michigan
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who is commonly regarded as one of Michigan's most liberal politicians – and chiefly responsible for passing election law changes that many claim make the state's ballot security the most lax in the country – announced that she will enter the open race to replace term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) next year.
A crowded field of candidates is expected to develop in both parties. Republican chances may be better than what would typically be viewed in this Democratic-leaning state because three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, previously a Democrat, announced his candidacy late last year as an Independent.
Mr. Duggan taking away Democratic votes on his Independent ballot line could be a significant factor, and he could potentially garner enough support to allow a Republican the opportunity of winning the statewide race with only plurality support. The Michigan race promises to be one of the most-watched gubernatorial campaigns in the 2026 election cycle.
New Jersey
Emerson College went into the field to test the New Jersey electorate regarding the 2025 Governor's race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D). Emerson conducted surveys for each political party nomination for a primary election scheduled on June 10, 2025.
Though the sample sizes are small, the data allows us to derive two key conclusions. On the Republican side, 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli holds a 26-13% advantage over radio talk show host Bill Spadea, with all other candidates failing to reach 10%. Though the support factors are low, Mr. Ciattarelli has a 2:1 advantage over Mr. Spadea – a point of good news for his candidacy.
The Democratic side is a free-for-all. While Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leads the pack, she only polls 10% with four of the five other candidates, including Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), all within the polling margin of error. The early signs suggest a very tight race to unfold, particularly within the Democratic primary.
Ohio
The Ohio Governor's race is already shaping up as a significant 2026 open campaign. Two major candidates have already announced: Attorney General Dave Yost (R) declared late last year, while State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) made public his intention to run for Governor just this week.
Former Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) has already resigned his position as the co-chairman of President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) advisory committee and is expected to imminently announce his own gubernatorial campaign.
On the Democratic side, former Ohio Health Department Director Amy Acton is the first to announce her candidacy. She led the state's Covid shutdown efforts, which will certainly become a point of focus in the coming campaign.
Tennessee
A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Marsha Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be a budding campaign for Governor. According to the Fabrizio Lee data, gathered from Jan. 13-16, Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13% margin.
The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Trump would endorse Ms. Blackburn. The spread then becomes 78-11%. Senator Blackburn's favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.
No one has officially announced their candidacies, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to do so until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals that she is interested in running for Governor. With polling data such as this, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor's race; and, clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.
Governor Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the Governorship, she would be able to appoint her own successor to the Senate.
STATE AND LOCAL
Boston
The fledgling Boston mayoral campaign of Josh Kraft (D) continues to move forward, and it appears he will soon announce his challenge to incumbent Mayor Michelle Wu (D). Mr. Kraft is the son of Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots National Football League club.
Josh Kraft is the president of the Kraft Family Philanthropies and the board chairman of the National Urban League's Eastern Massachusetts chapter. It is clear that Mr. Kraft will have plenty of money to compete in the citywide race. Whether he can unseat Mayor Wu is an early point of contention, but he will be capable of running a competitive campaign.
New York City
A second recent poll again posts former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) as well ahead in the 2025 New York City mayor's race. The Bold Decision Democratic firm conducted a poll of likely NYC voters and sees Mr. Cuomo leading Mayor Eric Adams by a 33-10% count. None of the other seven tested candidates could even reach double digits.
Carrying through the hypothetical Ranked Choice Voting rounds, Cuomo would win in the end with a 51-16% margin among the decided respondents. Mr. Cuomo has yet to announce that he would make a comeback attempt, but continued polling such as this will certainly be an encouraging factor in him making the decision to move forward.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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