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PRESIDENT
New Hampshire
Republican lawmakers in New Hampshire are floating a bill that would change the Granite State's electoral vote apportionment formula to one modeled after the systems in Maine and Nebraska.
Instead of a winner-take-all system – which awards all electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the statewide popular vote – the Maine and Nebraska process awards two electoral votes for the statewide victor and one each to the candidate carrying each of the state's congressional districts. Maine has two CDs, and Nebraska three. Considering the Republicans' strong majorities in both houses and with leadership support, the bill has a good chance of becoming law.
SENATE
Ohio
Governor Mike DeWine on Friday appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted to succeed Vice President-Elect JD Vance in the Senate.
Though Mr. Husted is literally being handed a Senate seat, his long-term path is not without challenges. Former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), who newly-elected Senator Bernie Moreno (R) unseated in November, says he is not done with public service, and is viewed as a possible 2026 contender vying for the right to serve the balance of the current term.
Considering Mr. Brown's long record in Ohio politics, were the former Senator to run in 2026, Mr. Husted would be forced to conduct an expensive major campaign against a very formidable opponent. Additionally, even if successful in 2026, Mr. Husted would again face the voters in 2028 when this particular seat next comes in-cycle. In short, he can expect to be in full campaign mode for a four-year period.
Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis (R) on Thursday announced that he will appoint state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) upon the latter's confirmation as US Secretary of State. The Attorney General is close to the Governor and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election.
In 2018, Ms. Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1% of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6%. Ms. Moody will run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then would have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.
Ms. Moody will apparently have Republican primary opposition, however. US Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has said he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whom Gov. DeSantis appoints.
Georgia
In hypothetical 2026 US Senate pairings regarding Sen. Jon Ossoff's (D) standing within the Georgia electorate, WPA Intelligence polling finds one Republican already leading the first-term Democratic incumbent. According to the Jan. 14-15 WPA survey, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, would already run six points ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 46-40%, should he choose to launch a challenge campaign.
Senator Ossoff posts significant leads over every other tested potential GOP candidate, however, topping a prospective Republican general election opponent in a range from 10 to 16 percentage points. The tested Republicans, in addition to Gov. Kemp, are Insurance Commissioner John King (Ossoff; 47-31%); Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (46-32%); and US Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), and Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Senator Ossoff's lead against the three Congressmen ranges from 10 to 13 points.
South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham (R) announced this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year, just as Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is again saying that launching a primary challenge against the incumbent is a possibility. Representative Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham, is also confirming that she is considering making another bid.
Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle here next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP incumbents. In a state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever becomes the GOP nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November of 2026.
HOUSE
MA-6
Six-term US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is likely to face Democratic primary opposition in 2026 after making statements opposing transgender women competing in girls' sports.
Earlier, Biden White House aide and former congressional candidate Daniel Koh indicated he is considering a challenge to Rep. Moulton, and this week former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, who lost badly to Rep. Moulton in her 2020 challenge (78-12%), says she is considering again making the congressional challenge. At this point, Rep. Moulton remains a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election.
NY-17
With rumors swirling that New York US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) will run for Governor in 2026, movement is beginning to develop in Democratic circles for the congressional seat. Without Lawler in the coming race, Democrats will be favored to convert the seat, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7. This week, Jessica Reinmann, CEO of the anti-poverty organization 914Cares, filed an organizational campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission.
TX-15
South Texas Democrats are reportedly attempting to recruit Latin Grammy award-winner Bobby Pulido to enter the 2026 congressional race to oppose two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen). The Congresswoman just won a second term in November with 57% of the vote. Previously, Mr. Pulido had expressed interest in running for office, but it remains to be seen if this challenge race develops.
GOVERNOR
Maine
Governor Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already the Democratic field jockeying to succeed her is forming. Three prominent Democrats comprise the top tier, with one of them likely becoming the Democratic nominee. The three are: US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and former state Senate President Troy Jackson. A number of Republicans are viewed as potential candidates, but none have a current statewide presence.
Michigan
More attention is being paid to what will become a very competitive race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). In the race is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running as an Independent.
Major political figures rumored to be considering the race are Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D), Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), outgoing US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D), US Reps. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and John James (R-Farmington Hills), former Attorney General Mike Cox, ex-Congressman Peter Meijer (R), and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon (R).
Oklahoma
Governor Kevin Stitt (R) is term-limited in 2026, and a crowded Republican field is expected to form to compete for the open state chief executive's position. This week, Attorney General Gentner Drummond became the first Republican to officially declare, and reportedly, he will launch an early media blitz to support his fledgling candidacy. The GOP nomination will likely decide the race considering Oklahoma's strong Republican voting history.
South Carolina
Palmetto State Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) – son of veteran US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), who has long been believed to be positioning himself for a 2026 gubernatorial bid, as incumbent Henry McMaster (R) will be term-limited come the next election cycle – confirmed this week that he is considering running for the state's top office.
The Republican field will become crowded. Other potential heavyweight candidates include Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, US Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R-Johnston/Aiken).
Tennessee
Reports that Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), fresh from a landslide re-election victory (64-34% over state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D)), is considering mounting a campaign for the open Governor's position are now being confirmed. Senator Blackburn is reportedly informing supporters that she is "likely" to enter the Governor's race next year.
Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Senator Blackburn entering the race will probably freeze the field and derail the potential plans of Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) to launch their own gubernatorial campaigns.
Virginia
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of the Virginia electorate (conducted in mid-December but released just this week) saw former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) locked in a tight early general election race. According to the ballot test, Ms. Spanberger posts a 47-44% edge. The result was confirmed by Emerson College in their previously reported Jan. 6-8 survey of 1,000 VA registered voters, which found a 42-41% split also in the ex-Congresswoman's favor.
STATE AND LOCAL
Boston
Boston City Councilman Ed Flynn (D), who had been considered a potential challenger to incumbent Michelle Wu (D), says he will not oppose the Mayor later this year. On the other hand, Jonathan Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, is apparently taking steps to enter the race. Boston features a jungle primary system with the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advancing to a general election.
New York City
A new Hart Research poll finds good news for ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and bad news for indicted incumbent Eric Adams. The poll, conducted in December for the Progressives for Democracy in America organization, found former Gov. Cuomo – though an unannounced mayoral candidate – leading the Democratic field, with incumbent Mayor Adams faring poorly.
The ballot test sees Mr. Cuomo, who resigned his statewide position under scandal in 2021, topping the mayoral Ranked Choice Voting primary with 32% preference. Former city Comptroller Scott Stringer is second, with 10%. Current NYC Comptroller Brad Lander has 8% support, while state Sen. Jessica Ramos (D-New York City) and Mayor Adams trail with 7 and 6 percent, respectively. It remains to be seen if Mr. Cuomo enters the race to begin a political comeback, but this early data suggests such a move could be successful.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump will be president once again in a matter of days. Even now, his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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