Weekly Roundup – January 11, 2025

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SENATE

Louisiana 

Senator Bill Cassidy (R) is up for re-election in 2026, but he must face a partisan Republican primary and potentially a runoff due to a change in the state's election laws. Gone is the top two jungle primary system for federal races and certain other offices. State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has already announced his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. 

For the Democrats, former Gov. John Bel Edwards is a potential candidate. Should Mr. Edwards run, Sen. Cassidy would face a tough renomination fight and probably without an endorsement from President Trump; then, a difficult general election would follow against a Democrat who was twice elected as the state's Governor.

Massachusetts 

Close associates of ex-Gov. Charlie Baker (R), now the President of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), are throwing cold water on the idea that Mr. Baker may challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the 2026 election. Chances are very strong that Sen. Markey – in Congress since 1976 and already an announced candidate for re-election – can be expected to face little in the way of credible opposition. He will easily be re-elected to a third full US Senate term.

New Hampshire 

Former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R) – who, after relocating to the Granite State and failing 57-41% in his 2020 challenge to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – says he is considering making a return appearance in 2026. Meanwhile, outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said this week that he will not challenge Shaheen next year. For her part, the Senator says she will make a decision about seeking a fourth term later this year.

North Carolina 

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats' first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running "in the next few months." Mr. Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis. 

Texas 

A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Mr. Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn – a move that the AG man does not deny. 

According to the ballot test, Mr. Paxton would lead the Senator, 42-34% – a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23% among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24% from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. 

Senator Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15% spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18% within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.

DSCC 

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Senator Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats' efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024. 

While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races that includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.

HOUSE

PA-8  

Former Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton-anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Mr. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2% majority, a margin of 4,062 votes out of 403,314 ballots cast. Mr. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months. 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region's voter history and that Mr. Cartwright's last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.

WA-4  

Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Mr. Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46% margin, even with Donald Trump's endorsement. Representative Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment. 

In 2022, Mr. Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3% of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.

GOVERNOR

Colorado 

In what is expected to be a hotly-contested open Democratic primary for Governor, Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) is the first person to officially declare his candidacy.  Other potential Democratic candidates include former US Senator, Interior Secretary, and US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar, as well as US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). 

Governor Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will hold a strong advantage beginning the general election.

Kansas  

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is ineligible to run for re-election, which ignites competitive primary elections in both parties. Jumping out first is Republican Secretary of State Scott Schwab, who this week declared his gubernatorial candidacy. Another GOP possibility is Attorney General Kris Kobach. US Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Independence/Topeka), who was the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee and recently elected to Congress, is unlikely to run statewide in 2026.

For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. David Toland and US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) are potential candidates who would make the general election competitive in a state that typically elects Republicans.

Michigan 

Former Attorney General Mike Cox (R), who in 2018 unexpectedly declined to campaign for the open Michigan gubernatorial office, appears ready to become a candidate in 2026. This week, Mr. Cox officially formed a gubernatorial fundraising committee to test the waters for a statewide bid. Governor Gretchen Whitmire (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Very competitive nomination battles in both parties are expected to unfold.

New Jersey 

In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that already features a competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10. 

Already in the Democratic race are two US Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), as well as three Mayors – Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City) – along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.

Ohio  

Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio's Covid chief, announced this week that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R).  Competitive primaries are expected in both parties, with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio's recent voting history. 

DeWine's choice to replace Sen. JD Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor's race once the Senate pick is announced.

Virginia 

A Jan. 6-8 Emerson College poll sees a tight 2025 open race for Governor. According to the Emerson ballot test, former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) would lead Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by just a single percentage point, 42-41%. 

The Virginia race is one of only two gubernatorial elections slated for 2025, with New Jersey hosting the other. Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to seek a second term. Virginia is the only state in the country to limit its state chief executives to a single four-year term.

STATE AND LOCAL

Oakland  

Because Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled in the Nov. 5 election, a special vote to fill the balance of the term will be held on April 15. Former US Rep. Barbara Lee (D), who risked her seat of 13 terms to unsuccessfully run for US Senate, has filed a preliminary campaign committee to enter the Mayor's campaign. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 17.  

Under the Ranked Choice Voting system, this race could become interesting as a very crowded field is expected to form. Ms. Lee is likely the leading candidate because of her name identification and long service in Congress.

Virginia 

Unsurprisingly, two Democrats – one running for the state Senate and the other to the House of Delegates – and a single Republican state Senate candidate won special elections to fill vacancies in the state legislature. All three seats have heavily partisan voting histories.

The outcome allows the Democrats to hold their small majorities in legislature: 21-19 in the state Senate and 51-49 in the state House of Delegates.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump will be president once again in a matter of weeks. Even now, his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty