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SENATE
Georgia
A new poll was released for the Georgia Senate race this week, and we again see data showing Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The Quantas Insights survey found Gov. Kemp holding a 49-42% advantage over Sen. Ossoff. The Governor has not yet indicated that he will run for the Senate. Tested against any other potential Republican candidate, Sen. Ossoff holds the advantage.
Representative Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) clarified his status. Originally, it was reported that he is thinking of running for the Senate irrespective of what Gov. Kemp decides. This week he issued a statement saying that he would yield to the Governor if Mr. Kemp becomes a Senate candidate. Representative Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) is also interested in the Senate race, but he too would yield to Gov. Kemp.
Kentucky
This week, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) officially announced that he will retire, and the campaign to replace him is already under way. Last week, seven-term Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he will run for the Senate in 2026 if Sen. McConnell retires. This week, the Club for Growth conservative organization launched negative ads against Rep. Barr. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell's public statement.
Democratic leaders will try to entice Gov. Andy Beshear into the race. The Kentucky Senate contest will attract a great deal of political attention in the 2026 election cycle.
Minnesota
Senator Tina Smith (D) retiring could ignite a political firestorm within the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party. Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the first to seriously indicate that she will run for the Senate. Governor Tim Walz, who is eligible to run for a third term, is also expressing interest in the Senate seat. This week, the Down Ballot political blog reported that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), giving no indication that she would yield to either Gov. Walz or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, is also confirming her interest in possibly becoming a Senate candidate.
Therefore, should this high level multi-candidate Democratic primary develop, such a campaign could become divisive. In an August primary with a short general election cycle, it is probable that the eventual nominee would be more vulnerable than usual in a Minnesota general election campaign.
A quick Public Policy Polling survey of the Democratic electorate found Lt. Gov. Flanagan opening with a large lead over Rep. Craig, 55-22%. Governor Walz was not tested as part of this poll.
On the Republican side, US Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) confirmed that he will not run for the Senate. Former national sports telecaster Michelle Tafoya, ex-news anchor Liz Collin, and businessman and former gubernatorial candidate Kendall Qualls are reported as possible Senate candidates.
HOUSE
CA-40
Former Chino Valley School Board member and ex-congressional candidate Christina Gagnier (D) announced that she will enter the race to challenge three-term California US Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) next year. Ms. Gagnier was defeated for re-election in 2022 and also lost her congressional race by almost a 2:1 margin to Rep. Norma Torres (D-Pomona) in 2014, but she did qualify for the general election through the jungle primary.
Already in the race is art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet (D). Joe Kerr, the 2024 general election finalist who lost to Rep. Kim, 55-45%, has also filed papers to create a 2026 campaign committee. According to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians, President Trump carried this district in November with a 49-47% margin after losing here to Joe Biden 50-48% in 2020.
NY-17
Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson (D) announced that she will run for Congress in 2026 in what could be an open seat. Two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is openly considering launching a campaign for Governor. Should he run statewide, this district could become the Democrats' top national conversion target.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7. Should Rep. Lawler not seek re-election, we can expect to see a very crowded Democratic primary form. In November, Rep. Lawler defeated former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D), 52-46%.
OH-13
Ohio state Sen. Kristina Roegner (R-Hudson), who was thought to be interested in challenging US Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) next year, instead announced her candidacy this week for State Treasurer. This likely leaves the congressional door wide open for ex-state Senator Kevin Coughlin (R) to run again. He held Rep. Sykes to a 51-49% victory margin in November.
TN-6
Despite Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) making obvious moves to enter the open 2026 Governor's race and being way ahead in Republican primary polling, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) again this week indicated he will soon announce his gubernatorial effort regardless of who else decides to run.
If Rep. Rose vacates his Middle Tennessee 6th District, we can expect a highly competitive and crowded Republican primary battle to form. The eventual GOP nominee would become a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November.
TX-28
Republicans may have a strong candidate to challenge indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) in 2026. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who became a Republican in December, is weighing his political situation as a possible GOP contender. It is also unclear if the Trump Justice Department will pursue the indictment of Mr. Cuellar, who is the most bipartisan Democrat in the House.
Webb County, which comprises about 35% of the 28th Congressional District is 95% Hispanic, yet the domain is turning more Republican. President Trump became the first Republican national candidate to carry Webb County since 1912, according to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians in defeating Kamala Harris here, 51-48%.
GOVERNOR
California
The California Republicans have a gubernatorial candidate. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), as expected, announced that he will join the field in what will be an open California Governor's race next year since incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) is term-limited. It will be difficult for any Republican to mount a serious challenge in the state, since it would be difficult to raise the $100 million or so in funding to legitimately compete.
Sheriff Bianco is already under attack for being too far right, and former Vice President and ex-California Sen. Kamala Harris still remains very much in the picture for the Democrats. At this point, Ms. Harris has not indicated that she will run, but there is clear evidence that she is testing the California political waters. Early polling suggests a crowded June 2026 jungle primary could be close. Ms. Harris carried the Golden State in the 2024 presidential election with 58.5% of the vote.
Florida
President Trump issued a statement of encouragement to Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) in reference to him running for Governor next year. Polling finds Rep. Donalds jumping out to a big lead, but those surveys did not include Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis' name. In what is a precursor to a Trump endorsement for Rep. Donalds, a developing race between he and Mrs. DeSantis would certainly be a campaign to watch.
Iowa
State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democratic statewide elected official in Iowa, confirms he is considering challenging Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) next year. His campaign treasury report, however, suggests he is doing more than just "considering" a run. Mr. Sand disclosed a large cash-on-hand advantage over Gov. Reynolds, rounded to $7.5 million versus $3 million. Governor Reynolds is expected to seek a third term, but has not yet announced her 2026 political plans.
Also this week, former state Representative Brad Sherman declared that he will challenge Gov. Reynolds in next year's Republican primary. If she runs, the Governor will be a strong favorite for renomination and begin with a major advantage toward re-election.
Kansas
Former Kansas City Royals President and ex-General Manager Dayton Moore (R) is confirming that he is considering entering the open 2026 Kansas Governor's race. Mr. Moore was a long-time Royals' executive, including his time as General Manager when the team won the 2014 World Series. Governor Laura Kelly (D) is term limited in 2026, but there has been little activity so far in terms of potential gubernatorial candidates in either party.
New Mexico
While former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland has been working to score an early clinch for the open Democratic gubernatorial nomination, a new former elected official is confirming that he is considering entering the primary campaign. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (D) confirms that he is testing the political waters about his own run for Governor.
Oklahoma
Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall entered the open Republican gubernatorial campaign this week. He will oppose Attorney General Gentner Drummond who announced his candidacy several weeks ago.
The Republican nomination process will likely determine term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt's (R) successor. The Oklahoma primary will be scheduled for late June with an August runoff if no candidate receives majority support in the initial election.
The regular Oklahoma Sooner Poll that the Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates firm conducts finds Mr. Drummond leading State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters, former Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, and Mr. McCall by a 44-14-6-5% count. Only Messrs. Drummond and McCall are announced gubernatorial candidates.
STATE AND LOCAL
Philadelphia County, PA
Controversial District Attorney Larry Krasner (D), one of billionaire George Soros' heavily-backed candidates, announced that he will seek a third term later this year. Mr. Krasner has been consistently labeled "soft on crime" in a county with a high crime rate. This will be a hotly-contested race both in the Democratic primary and general election. Retired Judge Patrick Dugan is already a Democratic DA candidate.
San Antonio, TX
Councilman John Courage (D) this week became the 27th candidate vying to replace term-limited Mayor Ron Nirenberg (D). The San Antonio Mayor's race will attract a great deal of political attention later this year. The crowded field suggests a Republican could venture into the general election, which could mean a highly competitive electoral battle in the Alamo City. The initial election is scheduled for May 3, 2025. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a June 7 runoff vote.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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