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SENATE
Georgia
A new survey again finds Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in Georgia's 2026 US Senate race, but the Democratic incumbent would top other tested GOP opponents.
The Tyson Group national polling firm conducted a late January poll of the Peach State electorate and projects Gov. Kemp to hold a 49-42% advantage over first-term Sen. Ossoff.
If another Republican, such as US Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/ Savannah) or Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) who confirm they are considering the Senate race, were the 2026 party nominee the Senator records respective leads of 47-39% and 51-39%.
Republicans appear to be yielding to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run, but so far the Governor has been non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He is ineligible to seek a third term under Georgia election law. He is also reported to be analyzing his chances for a potential presidential run in 2028.
Kentucky
Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) and seven-term Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are indicating that they will run for the Senate in 2026 to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), who is expected to not seek re-election.
Mr. Cameron served one term as Kentucky's Attorney General and lost the Governor's race to incumbent Andy Beshear (D) on a 53-47% count. Representative Barr won a swing congressional seat in 2012, but over the years has made it safe for himself. His last competitive election came in 2018.
Assuming McConnell retires, either Mr. Cameron or Rep. Barr will give the Republicans a strong general election candidate to hold the seat. An open 6th Congressional District could become moderately competitive.
Michigan
Blueprint Polling conducted a survey of Democratic primary voters for the 2026 open Michigan Senate race, and the ballot test results give former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg a large 40-16% preference margin over state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Not even reaching 4% in the preference poll were US Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), along with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township).
The Michigan-based EPIC-MRA polling firm then tested a hypothetical general election pairing between former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers and Mr. Buttigieg. According to this survey, Mr. Rogers would begin such a race with a 47-41% edge.
Minnesota
Senator Tina Smith (D) announced via open letter to her constituents that she will not seek re-election next year, indicating she wants to retire with her family. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but the state is becoming more competitive. Therefore, expect Republicans to recruit a credible candidate and make a concerted effort to win the 2026 Senate election.
All eyes will be on Governor and former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz (D) regarding a possible Senate candidacy. He is eligible to seek a third term as Governor, but has yet to divulge his intended political plans. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the seat, but the Republicans will be competitive in a 2026 statewide campaign.
HOUSE
CA-11
Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has drawn a 2026 Democratic primary challenge. Saikat Chakrabarti, a former campaign manager and chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) said he is challenging Pelosi because, "America is stuck, and Americans want real solutions that are as big as the problems we face."
This will be a difficult challenge. Representative Pelosi has averaged 73.4% of the vote since California instituted its jungle primary system in 2012. During that time, her general election average vote percentage is 82.7. Representative Pelosi's 11th Congressional District is fully contained within the consolidated San Francisco city and county, encompassing over 87% of the local jurisdiction.
IA-1
Republican businessman David Pautsch, who held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to only a 56-44% Republican primary victory in 2024 despite the challenger raising only $40,000 for his campaign, says he will return to again oppose the Congresswoman.
Her close primary win against a candidate who did little to mount an aggressive campaign was a clear indication that she would be headed for a tight general election contest. The political prognosis proved prophetic as Ms. Miller-Meeks eked out a 799-vote victory over Democratic former state Representative Christina Bohannan.
NE-2
Dan Osborn, who made national news with his Independent US Senate challenge to incumbent Deb Fischer (R) because of repeated close published polling, but then faltered at the end losing 46-54%, indicated he is interested in returning to challenge Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/ Omaha) in the swing 2nd District.
Nebraska Democratic chair Deb Kleeb, however, indicated the party wants to find their own candidate to challenge Rep. Bacon. She intimated, however, that her party could throw its support behind Osborn for either Governor or Senator should he choose to again run statewide.
NJ-7
Former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan (D), who was briefly a candidate in the 2024 congressional campaign before ending his effort, announced that he would return to challenge Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in 2026.
Mr. Vartan looked to be a strong candidate but dropped out of the race in favor of former Working Families state director Sue Altman. Representative Kean would defeat Altman 52-46%, though the challenger did raise over $6 million for her effort. Ms. Altman is now Sen. Andy Kim's (D) state director. Expect another competitive campaign in this perennially swing suburban congressional district.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Businesswoman Karrin Robson Taylor, who posted a respectable 43% against former news anchor Kari Lake's 48% in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, announced that she will compete in the 2026 Governor's race. This time, however, she carries President Trump's early endorsement.
The path to the nomination is not obstacle-free, however. Representative Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) has already announced for Governor and is leading both Robson and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in early polling.
Late last month, the Data Orbital research firm tested the Arizona electorate for the AZ Free News website and saw Rep. Biggs posting a 32-12% advantage.
Another pollster, Kreate Strategies ran a February poll conducted for the American Encore organization. Their results found Gov. Hobbs topping Ms. Robson, 40-38%. Again, Rep. Biggs performs better. He would nip Gov. Hobbs, 44-43% within the same polling universe.
Considering Gov. Hobbs' favorability index is a poor 41:56% favorable to unfavorable, we can count on seeing a very competitive 2026 Governor's campaign in the Grand Canyon State.
Florida
Casey DeSantis, wife of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), is showing signs of being willing to enter the 2026 Governor's race to succeed her husband, who is ineligible to seek a third term. Last week a poll was released that found Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) far ahead in a Republican primary poll. The tested field, however, did not include Ms. DeSantis. The Florida Governor's race promises to draw a great deal of national political attention in the 2026 election cycle.
Massachusetts
Governor Maura Healey (D) has announced that she will seek a second term in 2026 and will likely face light opposition in both the Democratic primary and general election.
New Mexico
As expected, former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland (D) announced that she will run for Governor next year. At this early point in the election cycle, Ms. Haaland is favored both for the Democratic nomination and in the general election. Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Ohio
Governor Mike DeWine (R) chose former Ohio State head football coach and ex-Youngstown State University president Jim Tressel (R) as the state's new Lt. Governor. The position was open because Mr. DeWine appointed then-Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to replace Vice President JD Vance in the Senate.
Mr. Tressel had been rumored as a potential US Senate candidate in the past but never formed a campaign committee. He was non-committal when asked if he would enter the open 2026 Governor's race.
Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Frank LaRose (R) announced that he will not enter the open Governor's race but will instead run in the open State Auditor's contest. Last week, State Treasurer Robert Sprague announced for Governor but then dropped out and entered the open Secretary of State's race.
Both of these moves set up well for businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to announce his gubernatorial candidacy later this month and is dominating early Republican primary polling.
Tennessee
While it is clear that Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who was just re-elected in November, is testing the waters for a run for Governor, the state's other Senator, Bill Hagerty (R), was also reportedly eyeing his chances in an open Governor's race. Under Tennessee election law, Mr. Hagerty could simultaneously seek both offices. His Senate seat is in-cycle next year.
Since he and Sen. Blackburn are close allies, it was never considered likely that they would run against each other, and Sen. Hagerty cleared up any confusion late this week: he announced he is only seeking re-election.
STATE AND LOCAL
New York City
The Justice Department has directed federal prosecutors to drop campaign finance charges against NYC Mayor Eric Adams (D), but it remains to be seen if that development happens or improves the incumbent's standing for renomination in the June 24 Democratic primary. A new Manhattan Institute poll, conducted before the DOJ decision was released, again shows Mayor Adams trailing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
The Manhattan Institute poll, conducted by Emerson College, again found Mr. Cuomo, who resigned the Governorship under a scandal cloud in August of 2021, leading Mayor Adams and eight other Democratic primary candidates. According to the EC ballot test, Mr. Cuomo would outpace Mayor Adams 33-10%, with all others trailing in single digits.
The Ranked Choice Voting matrix would consume seven rounds according to this poll before Cuomo would reach the 50% mark and claim the nomination. In that final tally, Mr. Cuomo would receive 53%, followed by Adams at 25%, with City Comptroller Brad Lander posting 22% seventh round support.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.
Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.
Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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