Weekly Roundup – February 1, 2025

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SENATE

Michigan

Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) announced this week that he will not stand for re-election in 2026. The Michigan seat becomes the first Senate position to open in the new election cycle. Considering the closeness of the 2024 Senate contest where Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) nipped former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) by a three-tenths of a percentage point, we can expect another tough impending campaign in what will be the state's second consecutive open Senate election. 

Michigan will be a very active political state in 2026 with now an open Senate race to complement the open gubernatorial campaign. Expect heavy competition in both party primaries for each race along with hard fought general election battles. For her part, the state's term-limited Governor, Gretchen Whitmer (D), who is clearly planning a national run for President in 2028, says she will not run for Michigan's newly-open US Senate seat.

Potential Democratic Senate candidates might include former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Republican potential candidates include former US Rep. Mike Rogers who came within three-tenths of one percentage point of winning the state's other Senate seat in November. Should he announce early, Mr. Rogers would likely be able to quickly close out the nomination. 

Rumors were floating late this week suggesting that former NFL head coach and NBC Sports analyst Tony Dungy (R) and US Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) were both considering becoming Senate candidates. Both have subsequently dispelled such speculation.

Mississippi

Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2% of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. 

Senator Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44% vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

Virginia

A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven-point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (Dec. 18, 2024 – Jan. 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period's length reduces the accuracy figure and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.

The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38% on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16%.  This suggests that Sen. Warner's support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin's backing among Republicans, but these numbers are not supported in other recent similar partisan Virginia surveys mostly for the open 2025 Governor's race.

DSCC

At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

HOUSE

CO-8

Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado's 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Mr. Evans in the 2024 election. 

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

FL-1

As predicted, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, armed with endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily defeated nine Republican opponents with 67% of the vote to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R). Mr. Patronis now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the April 1 special general election in what is Florida's safest Republican congressional seat.

FL-6

Though not residing in Florida's vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83% support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Mr. Waltz left the House to become President Trump's National Security Advisor. 

Senator Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

GA-9

Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary. 

Mr. Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Mr. Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56% of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74% and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

MI-10

Former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who twice lost to Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) in close elections, is looking at launching a third congressional run. 

In 2022, Mr. Marlinga lost the open seat campaign by less than a percentage point. In his 2024 re-election run, Rep. James expanded his margin over Marlinga to 51-45%. Mr. Marlinga has not proven to be a robust fundraiser; hence, the Democratic leadership will likely attempt to recruit a stronger candidate for the 2026 election, particularly if Rep. James decides to enter the open Governor's or Senate race.

GOVERNOR

Connecticut

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee.  She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Governor Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico

Senator Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-US Representative Deb Haaland the undisputed front runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Ms. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Ohio

A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll sees businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead. In the race for what will be an open Governor's position, Mr. Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2% margin, respectively. 

An official announcement from Mr. Ramaswamy is reportedly soon forthcoming. Certainly, polling results such as this boost the chances of him entering the race.

Tennessee

Despite polling showing Sen. Marsha Blackburn as a prohibitive favorite in an open gubernatorial Republican primary campaign, US Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) stated this week that he still plans on running for the statewide post. The Congressman says he will soon announce his plans. 

The move would be surprising since a recent statewide poll found Sen. Blackburn beating Rep. Rose by almost 30 percentage points, 55-27%, in the Congressman's own 6th District. Statewide, the Fabrizio Lee research firm's poll found Sen. Blackburn leading Mr. Rose by a whopping 71-13% spread, which increases to 78% support for the Senator if President Trump endorses her gubernatorial bid.

Virginia

The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. 

According to the co/efficient data, Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Earle-Sears would each command 40% support.   

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty