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SENATE
Georgia
Political speculation remains high that Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in 2026, but the GOP also has other options. While it is unlikely that Mr. Kemp, who cannot succeed himself in the next election, will announce his Senatorial intentions before the legislative session ends, all await his decision. Clearly, a Kemp candidacy would give the Republicans their best chance of defeating Sen. Ossoff. For his part, the first-term Senator has already announced his intention to seek re-election.
State Insurance Commissioner John King (R) confirms he would have interest in running for the Senate, but looks to defer to Gov. Kemp if the latter man decides to run. Congressmen Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) are also potential Senate candidates. Expect Georgia to become the Republicans' strongest Senate conversion opportunity state.
Ohio
"This is my last speech on the Floor this year. But it is not – I promise you – the last time you will hear from me." These were the words of defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) - who lost the 2024 election to Sen-Elect Bernie Moreno (R) by a 50-46% count – suggesting that he will make a comeback in future elections. If so, it is likely the 72-year-old long-time Ohio politician will again seek office in 2026. He could choose to run in the open Governor's race, where he would likely have an easy run in the Democratic primary, or attempt to return to the Senate.
When Sen. JD Vance resigns his seat to become Vice President in January, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement. The new Senator may well find him or herself on the ballot in 2026, and possibly again in 2028, against Mr. Brown. Whoever is appointed will run to serve the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full six-year term in 2028.
HOUSE
FL-1
Rumors abound that resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz may take the oath of office for the coming term. Should the government shut down and continue through congressional commencement on Jan. 3, the odds are better that Gaetz will return to the House, most likely for a short period. He would probably want to participate in the Speaker's election, where a weakened Mike Johnson (R-LA) might have serious trouble being re-elected.
FL-23
Earlier this week, speculation was surfacing that US Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) was being considered to head the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Mr. Moskowitz stated that he will remain in Congress and killed any further speculation suggesting he would join the Trump Administration. If his seat were to become vacant, a special election would have been competitive, thus risking a Democratic takeover of his seat.
PA-7
Defeated Pennsylvania US Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), who lost to state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) 50.5-49.5%, or a margin of 4,062 votes out of 403,314 ballots cast, said that she is not ruling out returning in 2026 for a re-match.
Pennsylvania's 7th District, which includes the cities of Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, is a politically marginal entity. In her three successful elections beginning in 2018, Ms. Wild only averaged 52.1% of the vote. Therefore, we can again expect to see another highly competitive race here two years from now regardless of Ms. Wild returning or another Democrat taking her place.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Speculation was surfacing that Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Gov. Katie Hobbs next year. Mr. Fontes has squelched such comments, however, announcing that he will not oppose the Governor and will instead seek re-election to his present position as Arizona's Secretary of State.
With Gov. Hobbs having upside-down approval ratings, we can expect to see a serious general election challenge against her to emerge, and the possibility of strong primary opposition coming from individuals other than Mr. Fontes remains. The Arizona Governor's race will be a 2026 contest to monitor.
Colorado
Governor Jared Polis (D-CO) is ineligible to seek a third term, so a very competitive 2026 Democratic primary awaits Colorado voters. Magellan Strategies completed a Centennial State Democratic primary poll earlier this month and found Boulder-area Congressman Joe Neguse opening with a small lead.
According to the ballot test, Rep. Neguse posted 20% support, with Secretary of State Jena Griswold in second position at 16%. Current US Ambassador to Mexico, former US Senator, and ex-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was next with 11%, while Attorney General Phil Weiser followed at 8% preference.
The results of this survey suggest that we will see a highly-competitive wide-open race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The eventual nominee will then be a heavy favorite to win the office in the 2026 general election.
Nevada
Silver State Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) formally announced late last week that he will launch a 2026 campaign to unseat Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). In 2022, Mr. Lombardo, then the Clark County Sheriff, defeated then-Gov. Steve Sisolak (D). With President-Elect Donald Trump carrying Nevada this year, Republicans may be in stronger statewide position.
Nevada is becoming highly competitive and will again be so in 2026. The early announcement suggests that this gubernatorial campaign will be long in developing. Obviously, Mr. Ford is attempting to freeze the field in order to secure the Democratic nomination early, thereby best positioning himself for the general election.
New Mexico
Last week, we reported that Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who just won a big re-election victory, appears to be making moves to enter what will be the open Governor's race in 2026. Now, we see another newly re-elected Senator contemplating a similar move in his state.
Senator Martin Heinrich (D) won a third term on Nov. 5, posting a 55-45% win over Republican Nella Domenici. On Friday, Sen. Heinrich did not rule out entering the New Mexico Governor's race in 2026 - an open contest, as incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Considering New Mexico voter history, the eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the general election; hence, as the incumbent senior Senator, Mr. Heinrich's chances of winning such a primary are quite high.
We also see US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland (D) coming to the forefront. Lieutenant Gov. Howie Morales and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver are also potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Whoever wins the June 2026 Democratic primary will hold the inside track to winning the general election.
New York
Fresh from a strong 52-46% re-election bid against former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is signaling that he would consider running for Governor under the right circumstances. While winning a statewide race in New York is a long shot for any Republican, Gov. Kathy Hochul's (D) poor approval numbers are giving the party leadership hope that their eventual nominee can score an upset.
Should Lawler run for Governor, his House seat would almost assuredly turn back toward the Democrats. While Mr. Jones is unlikely to run again, Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustee Liz Whitmer Gereghty – the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) – who toyed with running against Jones and Lawler in the 2024 election but backed away before the candidate filing deadline, is listed as a potential 2026 congressional candidate.
Stories are also running in the New York media that Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D) is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic primary. To counter the story, Mr. Delgado publicly denied having such an intention, and re-tweeted his statement on the X social media platform. Speculation, however, continues.
Governor Hochul is in serious trouble with very poor job approval ratings and the New York electorate is showing a bit more favorability toward Republicans. It appears, however, that Mr. Delgado, who Gov. Hochul chose as her running mate while in his second term in the US House, is not her most serious primary threat. In fact, one should take him at his word that he would not challenge the woman who appointed him to a statewide position.
Rather, US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) does appear to be seriously considering challenging the Governor and would be a very strong contender in a Democratic primary. In any event, the New York Governor's race is likely to be highly competitive, both in the 2026 Democratic primary and potentially in the general election.
Virginia
Though it appeared that Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) was wrapping up the open 2025 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, apparently she may not have completely clear sailing. Veteran Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Newport News), who was originally elected to the House in 1992, has still not closed the door on entering the Governor's race. Representative Spanberger has already amassed more than $5 million for her statewide campaign, so if Rep. Scott decides to run, he will be severely outspent, at least in the early going.
On the Republican side, with Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) seeking re-election and US Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) saying he will stay in the House, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) appears to have the party nomination clinched. In a Spanberger-Sears gubernatorial campaign with Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) ineligible to seek a second term, the eventual Democratic nominee will begin the campaign in the clear favorite's position.
LOCALITIES
New York City
Citing his indictment for campaign finance violations, the New York City Campaign Finance Board, which has the responsibility of approving public funding for city candidates, has unanimously voted to deny such funding to Mayor Eric Adams in the 2025 mayoral election.
Next year's election is already off to a strong start. A total of seven Democrats have announced their challenge campaigns to Mayor Adams, who has also declared his intention to seek re-election. Included in the list are City Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer, two state Senators, two state Assemblymen, and a hedge fund manager. Waiting in the wings to launch possible candidacies are former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and possibly US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), though the latter man is more likely to run for Governor.
The citywide Democratic primary, which will likely determine New York's next Mayor, is scheduled for June 24, 2025. Though Mayor Adams could prevail in a crowded primary, he would likely have trouble in the Ranked Choice Voting rounds that will be again employed in this upcoming election.
Oakland, CA
Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled by the voters on Nov. 5, and the Oakland City Council has set April 15 for the replacement election. Already, some prominent names are surfacing as potential candidates.
The first is outgoing US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate earlier in the year and as a result risked her US House seat. Another is former NFL and University of California at Berkeley football star Marshawn Lynch, who has also been mentioned as a potential contender. Neither individual has yet confirmed interest in running, but both would be formidable candidates.
The current interim Mayor, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas (D), will not be a candidate in the special election. She was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 5, and will be assuming her new position at the beginning of the year.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.