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SENATE
California
There is a bit of confusion surrounding California US Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes.
In November, Mr. Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41%, for the regular term. Yet, Sen-Elect Schiff is already sworn into office. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Ms. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.
Mr. Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California's long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified. Therefore, Gov. Newsom appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.
Florida
Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election.
Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a US Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Senator Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Mr. Rubio.
Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment.
The person appointed will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.
Illinois
Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term "after the first of the year."
Now 80 years of age, Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.
Iowa
Conservative Iowa radio talk show host Steve Deace (R) is confirming that he is considering challenging Sen. Joni Ernst in the 2026 Republican primary, but says he will step aside if a stronger MAGA candidate comes forward. Some from the party's right flank indicate those activists are encouraging state Attorney General Brenna Bird to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Ernst. State Auditor Rob Sand is another Republican said to be considering running for the Senate.
South Carolina
Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, has confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor's race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the '26 Republican Senatorial primary.
In 2014, Ms. Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2% of the statewide vote. Senator Graham won that primary with 56% of the vote.
While it is clear Ms. Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham, who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.
Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Mr. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.
Senate Leadership Fund
Former US Senator Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund.
This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation for his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised over $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.
HOUSE
CA-45
Democratic attorney Derek Tran unseated California GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) by 653 votes from more than 315,000 votes cast; and even before he takes office, potential future opponents are beginning to test the political waters.
Representative Steel has already filed a 2026 FEC campaign committee. Likewise, it was reported on Wednesday that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen (R) is already examining the possibility of forming a congressional campaign committee. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the CA-45 district as D+5, though it has been stronger for Republicans in the past two congressional campaigns. Irrespective of the statistics, it is clear that California's 45th CD will be a major battleground district in 2026.
FL-1
Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis.
Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, ten others remain.
Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Mr. Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality
nominee advance into the April 1st special general election.
One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern
panhandle seat Florida's safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat on April 1.
FL-6
Senator Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination. While eleven Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, only one other Republican has done so in the coastal 6th District. That individual is MAGA activist Aaron Baker.
However, President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have both publicly endorsed state Sen. Fine .
Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have also filed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.
MA-4
For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, MA electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, suggest that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Mr. Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.
Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.
If the local Republicans convince Mr. Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.
WI-3
Wisconsin US Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) defeated businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) by a 51-49% margin to win a second congressional term in November. Ms. Cooke is being reported as saying she is considering seeking a re-match in 2026. Additionally, former state Senator Brad Pfaff (D), who held Mr. Van Orden to a 51.8% victory back in 2022, indicates that he is "open" to making another run in 2026.
GOVERNOR
New Jersey
The Laborer's International Union of North America has released the results of its recent Upswing Research and Strategy poll and found Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) jumping out to an early lead in the 2025 open race to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
According to the release, Ms. Sherrill commands 23% support, with 30% listed as undecided. Following are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka with 13%, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) at 10%, and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney each posting 8% support. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller rounds out the Democratic field, with 7% backing from the primary voters' sample.
Oklahoma
It appeared a near-certainty that US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor's race in two years. Earlier this week, however, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Mr. Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.
During the leadership elections, Mr. Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.
Governor Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.
Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting if Mr. Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.
Tennessee
The fact that Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), fresh from a resounding 30-point general election victory for a second term, is still running television ads suggests something new. Speculation is beginning to swirl that Sen. Blackburn may enter the open 2026 Republican primary for Governor since incumbent Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
STATES
Alaska
Voters considered repealing Alaska's top four jungle primary system, and the end result proved razor thin. Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), the state's chief elections officer, called for a recount of the final vote and the result was just released.
The secondary count confirmed that the repeal measure was defeated, by an official 743 votes from a voter turnout of over 321,000 individuals.
The final tally means the present system of having a jungle primary – which sends four individuals regardless of political party affiliation to the general election and the Ranked Choice Voting system deciding any plurality result – will continue.
Arkansas
According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government.
This measure would create a nine member commission where the Governor, state Attorney General, and the Secretary of State would appoint those serving.
The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the
Governor's mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House.
The chance of this bill passing in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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