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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won't, or can't (under state election law), remove his name. Mr. Kennedy's name will be removed from the ballot in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; however, it appears that he will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to Mr. Trump if their first choice, Mr. Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41% in Trump's favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16% for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22%; and Wisconsin, 55-25%.
Therefore, the Trump campaign and Mr. Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that the latter man is no longer in the race, regardless of his ballot presence.
Cornel West
As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced this week that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state's requirements for ballot access; therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate.
West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, which could prove pivotal in the national outcome. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Trump majority support.
SENATE
Florida
We've recently seen several polls indicating that Sen. Rick Scott (R) is in a close race against former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).
A new survey by Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Scott with only a 48-45% lead over Ms. Mucarsel-Powell – this, just one month after the Florida primary election.
Earlier this month, a Florida Atlantic University ballot test yielded a similar conclusion, finding Scott with a narrow lead, 47-43%.
Electoral and polling history tells us, however, that Democrats typically perform well in Florida races during August – Republican strength begins to show itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.
Maryland
The latest AARP Maryland poll projects that former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked, with each attracting 46% support.
These figures are much different than the last publicly-released ballot test survey, conducted from June 19-20 by Public Policy Polling According to those results, Ms. Alsobrooks held a 48-40% lead. Before this, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls, and found Ms. Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively.
The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.
Montana
A new Public Opinion Strategies survey finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Mr. Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44%.
Earlier this month, a RMG Research poll saw Tester leading 49-44%.
Even the latter survey, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy's favor by a 55-37% mark.
Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next-best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic Senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.
HOUSE
AK At-Large
Republicans scored a major break this week in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the August 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top-four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich, III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.
The Dahlstrom move increases the Republicans' chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least an early general election slight favorite. Though all of the primary ballots have not yet been recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50% mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Mr. Begich's chances significantly increase.
There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual's vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000; chances are strong, therefore, that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.
FL-13
In terms of polling, the case of Sen. Rick Scott (R), profiled above, may have something of an echo in the Tampa Bay area, where a new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.
The St. Pete Polls' 13th District survey finds Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44%.
The survey is the first publicly-released poll since May, when a GQR survey for the Fox campaign found Rep. Luna leading, 51-46%.
A similar pattern, though which much less data, materialized during Ms. Luna's 2022 congressional race. Just prior to the election that year, the one published pre-election survey – also from St. Pete Polls – found Ms. Luna leading her '22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45%; however, she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly-projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.
NJ-9
Candidates are announcing their intentions to participate in the special nominating convention to replace the late New Jersey US Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) who passed away last Wednesday.
Nomination hopefuls included Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and St Sen Nellie Pou (D-Paterson).
After Sen. Pou obtained endorsements from all of the district's Democratic Party county chairmen and other key local officials, the remaining candidates withdrew. Therefore, expect Sen. Pou to replace Mr. Pascrell on the November ballot and become a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November.
TX-18
While former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is set to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) on the November general election ballot, he is not running to fill the unexpired term. The late Congresswoman's daughter, Erica Lee Carter, is the only candidate filing to fill the balance of her mother's term. Governor Greg Abbott (R) scheduled the special election to run concurrently with the general election. Carter, upon official election, will then assume her mother's position until the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025.
VA-7
The results of an early August poll – the first we've seen in the open VA-7 general election campaign – were released this week. The survey, from Ragnar Research for Republican Derrick Anderson's campaign, sees retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman (D) clinging to a one-point, 42-41%, edge over attorney and Afghan War veteran Anderson.
In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 17th-most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference, we can expect to see several more polls released here in the coming weeks.
STATES
Alaska
The Alaska Supreme Court has ruled that the ballot proposition to repeal the state's top four jungle primary system and return to a partisan primary method will remain on the November ballot. If the measure is adopted, the top four system will be replaced in the 2026 election.
The 2024 races will continue under the current top four/Ranked Choice Voting guidelines. It remains to be seen if the people want the hybrid system to continue, or to return to typical partisan primaries. In 2020, the top four system was adopted with just 50.5% of the vote.
Arizona
While a lower court has given the green light to qualify a ballot proposition that would change Arizona's current partisan nomination system to a jungle primary in 2026, the state Supreme Court may halt the process. The high court stated this week that the lower court did not address the issue of duplicate signatures when ruling that the proponents had enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.
The Down Ballot data organization reports that this proposal is also ambiguous in that it does not state how many candidates would advance to the general election if the proposition is adopted. Rather, a combination of the Governor, legislature, and Secretary of State would eventually decide who qualifies to advance in each contest. The legal battle over this controversial proposition will continue for some time.
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire recently conducted a poll of the Granite State electorate in the lead-up to the state's late Sept. 10 primary election.
As other data has shown, ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll – which is her best showing – Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21%. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30% edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Senator Russell Prescott holds a 19-10% advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur, with no other candidate reaching double digits.
In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former Executive Council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The 34-28% split is closer than what other polls have indicated.
This could suggest that Mr. Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election.
On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17% edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and ten others.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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