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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Throws Support Behind Trump
Speaking in Arizona on Friday, Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., suspended his campaign and formally endorsed Donald Trump for president. Accusing the Democratic Party of working to dismantle democracy, Kennedy said he was backing Trump based on three key issues: freedom of speech / the threat posed by censorship, the catastrophic impact of the war in Ukraine, and what he termed "the war on children" – the poisoning of America's youth by toxic food and overmedication.
Kennedy said he would leave his name on the ballot in both blue and red states, but would remove it from consideration in ten key toss-ups so that he did not act as a spoiler.
Following his announcement, Kennedy appeared alongside Trump as a featured speaker at the former President's rally in suburban Phoenix.
Now, the debate begins over the extent to which Kennedy's endorsement of and involvement with Trump will help the former president's effort. It is possible that Kennedy's support for Trump will aid Republicans in the short term, but it could also help Democrats in the longer term.
One reason that the Independent candidate is getting out of the race is the lawsuits that Democratic parties from key states have filed that would disqualify his ballot status. The Democrats' actions suggest that they want Kennedy out of the race because they clearly believe his presence on the ballot hurts Kamala Harris.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Alaska
As expected, at-large US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but one question remained unanswered: whether businessman Nick Begich, III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom – the choice of the Republican establishment as well as former President Donald Trump – would become Rep. Peltola's prime competitor.
While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Mr. Begich, not Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom, who secured second place. In fact, Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind Begich, and 30 points behind the Congresswoman.
The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we've seen before – that is Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House.
Florida
The Florida primary unfolded as expected, with Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) securing easy wins their respective primaries.
Senator Scott posted over 84% in the Republican primary, while Ms. Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.
In the Sunshine State's 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, capturing 72% of the vote to defeat Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who moved into the district to challenge the Congressman. Representative Gaetz will now advance into the general election, where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.
In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72% of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge), who announced just before the candidate filing deadline expired that he would not seek re-election. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.
Turning to the St. Petersburg-anchored 13th congressional district – which could become competitive – marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The Congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.
Representative Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who former President Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72% in the state's GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee's November opponent. Since Ms. Kemp has underperformed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida's most competitive seat.
Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the Congressman easily prevailed with 61% voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan's most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.
In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey, earning a 54% vote total. She now will oppose two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.
Wyoming
As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories on Tuesday night. Senator Barrasso's 68% victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81% of the primary vote will send both office-holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump's strongest state in the country.
SENATE
Arizona
The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R). The margin spread, however, has varied considerably.
The latest release, from WPA Intelligence sees the Gallego edge at just 48-46% over Lake. Another four polls released in August recorded the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points.
Montana
After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research survey, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, Tester posts a 49-44% advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana-based aerospace company.
The poll has a basic flaw, in that the sampling period is long (eight days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other surveys have shown, former President Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35%, according to the RMG Research results.
The results also see 16% of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17% of Tester's voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55% said they would vote for the Republican candidate, as compared to the 37% who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.
Pennsylvania
Recent surveys of Pennsylvania's competitive US Senate race are producing seriously-conflicting results. The most recent polls, released yesterday, from Rasmussen Reports, Emerson College and Quinnipiac University show challenger David McCormick (R) closing to within single digits of Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). Only days earlier, however, both the New York Times / Siena College and Pennsylvania-based Franklin & Marshall College posted Sen. Casey to double-digit leads.
The Rasmussen, Emerson, and Quinnipiac polls were all conducted during the Aug. 8-17 period and interviewed a total of 4,050 Pennsylvania voters. All of the results find Sen. Casey leading, but his margin is 3, 4 and 5 points, respectively, among the three pollsters. The NYT/Siena and F&M surveys were conducted during the July 31-Aug. 8 period, and interviewed a combined 1,613 Keystone State registered voters. Senator Casey's margin in the NYT/Siena survey is 14 points, and in the F&M study, 12 points.
The progression suggests the race is tightening, since the more recent results are consistently closer than the wider range found during the earlier period.
HOUSE
AZ-1
On the heels of former state Representative and physician Amish Shah's (D) surprising win in the July 30 crowded Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah deadlocked with 48% of the vote.
AZ-3
In another of the close 2024 primary races in which the counting has dragged on for weeks, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari this week was declared the official winner of the open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary by a 39-vote margin over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari had led since the first count on July 30, but what originally appeared to be a substantial lead dwindled in every subsequent count until the leakage finally stopped with only 39 votes to spare. The total turnout was a low 38,135 votes. AZ-3 is a safe Democratic seat.
CA-45
One of the keys to determining the next US House majority is how well the Republicans do in retaining the four Democratic seats their members hold in the Golden State. One of those is the Orange County district of two-term Rep. Michelle Steel. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 45th as D+5, but Rep. Steel was able to secure a 52-48% post-redistricting re-election victory in 2022.
While initially favored to claim a third term, a just-released late-July Normington Petts survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee finds Rep. Steel and Democrat Derek Tran tied at 47% each. In a heavily-Asian district (41.4% of the Voting Age Population), Mr. Tran has a strong advantage within the large Vietnamese population (62-30%) over the Korean-born Republican incumbent. We can expect another close finish in a highly-competitive Orange County congressional district.
MD-6
In a surprising survey result, Public Opinion Strategies released a research study of Maryland's 6th Congressional District for the Neil Parrott for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The results find Democratic nominee April Delaney leading Mr. Parrott, a two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate, by only a 42-40% margin.
MI-8
Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on August 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of its Global Strategy Group survey. The poll, though taken just before the general election officially began here on Aug. 7, finds Mr. Junge posting a one-point lead over Sen. Rivet, 45-44%. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.
NJ-9
Eighty-seven-year-old veteran US Representative Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) died this week, only a few days after being readmitted to the hospital. His family issued the announcement on Wednesday.
Pascrell is the fourth House member to pass away in this Congress, the second since the July 4 holiday, and the second from New Jersey. His death follows those of Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ) and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX).
There are now four vacancies in the House – three from the members who have passed away, Reps. Jackson Lee, Payne and Pascrell; and one from resigned Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI). The Pascrell vacancy reduces the House count to 220R-211D-4V (3D; 1R).
With Pascrell's passing, the open seat count headed into the election now grows to 55. Of these, 29 are in Democrat-held districts, with 25 from the Republican side and one newly-created seat within the new Alabama redistricting configuration. Another seven seats have been filled in special elections, and all but the CO-4 campaign feature new incumbents running for their first full term.
PA-10
Another battleground US House contest is unfolding in the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, a new poll suggests the race between six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson is already a toss-up.
An Upswing Research survey, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, finds the challenger leading Rep. Perry with a slight 48-47% margin. Typically, this district has polled better for Democrats than it has actually voted, but there is little doubt that the race in this central Pennsylvania CD will be one to watch.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire
As we approach the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm's College released the results of its latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races. Governor Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.
The St. Anselm's poll finds former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27%. For the Republicans, Ms. Ayotte's margin is much larger over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ms. Ayotte a 59-25% advantage. St. Anselm's did not release general election results.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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