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PRESIDENT
Vice-Presidential Selection
Newly-nominated Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris announced her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her Vice Presidential running mate. It is clear that Harris chose a person with whom she is personally close and can help her implement an ideological agenda. It is doubtful that Gov. Walz will help bring in any new domain to the Democratic coalition, especially since Minnesota is the most loyal of all states to Democratic presidential nominees.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Kansas
In the Sunflower State's open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination, topping the 53% mark in a field of five candidates.
For the Democrats, former US Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51% of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a severe underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.
Michigan
In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top-performing candidates.
In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state Senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin's (D-Lansing) successor.
In the competitive 8th District, as expected, state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election.
After the primary, Sen. Rivet released her Global Strategy Group internal survey, which found her trailing Junge, 44-45%, despite Democratic primary turnout outpacing Republican participation by a 58.5-41.5% margin. Statewide, the Democratic advantage was only 51.5–48.5% over the Republican figure.
In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills).
In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.
Missouri
In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Representative Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intraparty challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Representative Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.
In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed to two former state Senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.
In the open Governor's race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Governor Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.
Washington
The Evergreen State jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Senator Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58% as of press time. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.
The competitive House races find five-term US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates endorsed by Trump.
In the state's southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election in 2022. While she placed just over 10,000 votes ahead of Kent, the combined Republican turnout is almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as it did two years ago.
In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely-Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).
Turning to the open 6th District, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Representative Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state Senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union), will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over. but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.
In the Governor's race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56% of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election, especially with Vice President Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.
SENATE
Ohio
The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present, even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. A bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP finds Trump leading Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39%, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Sen. Brown's lead is four points, 46-42%.
The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump's Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, this hasn't happened.
Polling Series
British pollster Redfield & Wilton conducted a series of US Senate surveys in four states for London's Telegraph publication, and while all the contests are close, the Democratic candidate, typically an incumbent, has the advantage in all.
In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads Republican Senate nominee Kari Lake, 42-36%. In neighboring Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is up 41-38% in a race that is again tightening. The New Mexico numbers also show a close race, but one that favors two-term incumbent Martin Heinrich (D). The ballot test split here is 40-34%, with Sen. Heinrich leading former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici (R).
In Pennsylvania, we again see a familiar trend, with Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), but not yet pulling away. The Redfield & Wilton numbers find Sen. Casey leading 45-40%. All these results are consistent with other recent polling in these various states.
HOUSE
AZ-1 and AZ-3
The slow ballot verification/vote-counting process is once again dragging on in Arizona, and one key race remains suspended in abeyance. The Democratic primary in the state's open 3rd District now sees a margin of just 42 votes separating former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and ex-state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The eventual winner here is a lock to win the general election and replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running for the Senate.
The deadline to report final totals to the Secretary of State from all Grand Canyon State primary elections is August 12, and the certification deadline is August 15. We can expect this 3rd District race to use all the available time. With such a close outcome, moving to a recount round also appears inevitable.
The crowded and close 1st District Democratic primary now has a projected winner. Physician and former state Representative Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination. Shah only captured 23.5% of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. He will now advance into a competitive contest with veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills).
CA-16
The open 16th District election attracted a great deal of political attention in early primary season because two candidates tied for second place, and for a time it appeared that the general election would feature former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) and two general election challengers. A recount, however, made state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) the second-place qualifier by a scant five vote margin.
This week, Low's campaign released a Tulchin Research internal poll, and not surprisingly the results produced a close snapshot. The ballot test broke 30-29% in favor of Liccardo. At the end of June, the Liccardo campaign released their own internal survey from Lake Research Partners, which projected Liccardo holding a 39-28% advantage.
PA-7
The latest Tarrance Group poll sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Wild has won with 51-49% margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township).
The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild's lead at only 47-45% despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump posts a similar lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46%.
TX-18
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee on August 13.
A large group of candidates is expected to compete for the members' votes. The winner will then replace Jackson Lee on the regular general election ballot.
Perhaps the leading candidate to replace the Congresswoman is former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner. Several state Representatives and Houston City Councilmembers, current and former, are also vying for the party nomination. Jackson Lee's two children this week announced their support for Turner. The Democratic nominee is a lock in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+43.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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