Weekly Roundup – April 12, 2025

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SENATE

Nebraska 

Independent Dan Osborn, who ran a very competitive race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in the 2024 election cycle before losing 53-47%, is indicating he will now oppose Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in the 2026 campaign. Mr. Osborn’s race against Sen. Fischer was close because the Democrats did not file their own candidate and instead backed Mr. Osborn.  It is probable the same situation will happen next year. 

Sen. Ricketts was appointed to the seat when then-Sen. Ben Sasse (R) resigned. He won the right to serve the balance of the current term in the 2024 election with a strong 63-37% finish. Prior to his appointment to the Senate, Mr. Ricketts served two terms as Nebraska’s Governor.

New Hampshire

US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) declared that he will run for the Senate in hope of succeeding retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). For the Republicans, despite encouragement from President Trump, former Governor Chris Sununu (R) announced he will not run for the Senate. 

The development makes Rep. Pappas the early favorite to win the general election. Republicans, however, still believe they will be competitive in the race. The most likely major candidate is former Massachusetts US Senator and 2014 NH Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown, who NH political insiders believe will run. If he does, we can expect a formal announcement to come during the summer.

North Carolina 

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 due to an adverse redistricting map, announced his candidacy for US Senate during the week. The move was expected since Mr. Nickel indicated he would run for the Senate at the time he declined to seek a second term in the House. 

The early announcement is interesting in that it may signal that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who Democratic leaders have been attempting to recruit into the race against Sen. Thom Tillis (R), may not run. Currently, Mr. Cooper is completing a fellowship at Harvard University that ends in late May. 

Mr. Nickel, who previously said he would step aside for Cooper, indicated in his announcement address that “he would cross that bridge when he comes to it,” should the former Governor decide to enter the Senate race. 

Expect the North Carolina race to be one of the most competitive campaigns fought in the 2026 election cycle.

Texas

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) announced that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the state’s Republican primary early next year. The move had been anticipated ever since Mr. Paxton survived an impeachment move in the legislature back in 2023. Early polling suggests that Paxton, despite his past scandals that almost cost him his current position, is favorable to his challenge.

Fabrizio Lee & Associates (1/28-2/2/25; 600 TX likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) released a shocking poll showing Sen. Cornyn trailing AG Paxton 65-35% in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary. While other polls have shown Sen. Cornyn to be trailing, none showed a margin as large as this. The fact that there is no undecided/refused to respond accounted for in the Fabrizio result suggests that some soft push questions were used even in the initial ballot test question.

Additionally, US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also looking like a Senate candidate. He raised $1.5 million in 1st Quarter 2025 and a Super PAC is currently spending more than $1 million airing positive ads about the Congressman in major media markets outside of the Congressman’s home in Houston.

HOUSE

CA-25

Hemet City Councilman Joe Males (R) announced his congressional candidacy during the week. His goal is to unseat seven-term Congressman Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) in a district that President Trump lost by only a 50-48% margin in November. Rep. Ruiz is certainly the favorite for re-election, but this could be a district where Republicans decide to spend money.

CA-41

Will Rollins (D), the former federal prosecutor who held veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) to a pair of 52-48% re-election victories, announced that he will not return for a third run in 2026. Democrats already have five declared congressional candidates, but none seem to be capable of mounting a major campaign. Rep. Calvert has not yet indicated whether he will seek a 19th term.

CO-8

Colorado’s swing 8th Congressional District is set to be one of the top national congressional campaigns in the country, and state Rep. Manny Rutinel’s (D-Commerce City) 1st Quarter fundraising report is what one would expect for such a campaign. Mr. Rutinel will report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter. Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) has not yet indicated his 1st quarter financial numbers, but they are expected to be similar to what Mr. Rutinel will report.

MI-10

With two-term incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) now officially running for Governor, the list of announced open seat candidates is growing. The latest to join the Democratic primary is Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel. Pontiac, however, is not in the 10th District. Previously announced Democratic candidates are former Macomb County prosecutor Christina Hines, and Army veteran and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. No Republican has yet publicly come forward, but a crowded field is expected to form.

MI-13

Former state House Speaker Joe Tate (D) said he will not launch a 2026 Democratic primary challenge against two-term Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), but says he has not closed the door about entering the state’s open US Senate race. 

NH-2

Businesswoman Lily Tang Williams (R), who opposed freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in the November election, says she will return for a rematch in 2026. The two will again battle for New Hampshire’s eastern congressional district. Ms. Goodlander won the open 2024 campaign with a 53-47% margin, one point better than Kamala Harris’ performance in the district. Rep. Goodlander, assuming she runs for re-election and not the open US Senate seat, will be favored to win again in 2026.

NY-21

It appears the Republicans made the right decision in withdrawing Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) from her nomination as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Designated Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien (D) has already raised $3 million for his anticipated special election with just over $2 million cash-on-hand. It is likely he will continue his campaign into the regular 2026 election cycle. It is not yet clear whether the Congresswoman will seek re-election next year.

PA-1

Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) announced his congressional candidacy during the week and will likely be Pennsylvania US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Levittown) 2026 general election opponent. The 1st District is one of only three nationally to elect a Republican House member in the same election as voting for Kamala Harris in the presidential race. The Congressman has won five times in the 1st District and will be favored to prevail again in 2026.

PA-7

Former Congresswoman Susan Wild (D), who lost her seat in November after three terms to freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) on a 50.5 – 49.5% count, announced this week that she will not seek a rematch in 2026. Instead, the former Representative indicated that she would support a yet-to-announce Democratic candidate. 

Previously, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure (D) announced his congressional candidacy, but his early fundraising has been disappointing. After five weeks of being an official candidate, Mr. McClure is only reporting $140,000 raised.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately field, we will see a highly competitive campaign in this politically marginal Pennsylvania district that includes the cities of Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton.

TX-18

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) to coincide with the regular odd-year general election date, November 4, 2025. 

Under Texas special election procedure, the Governor calls the vote under the jungle format, where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If no one receives majority support on November 4, the Governor will then schedule a runoff between the top two finishers for a later date. Typically, six weeks are allowed for a runoff election cycle meaning the final vote will likely be scheduled on December 16.

TX-28

Jay Furman (R), the 2024 Republican nominee who held veteran Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) to a 53-47% re-election victory, announced that he will return for a re-match in next year’s election cycle. Rep. Cuellar won despite being under federal indictment, while Mr. Furman moved to Texas for the explicit purpose of challenging the Congressman. Republican leaders view Webb County Judge (labeled county executive in most places) Tano Tijerina as their preferred candidate if they can convince him to run. It is likely we will see another competitive race here next year.

GOVERNOR

Florida

US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) unveiled more gubernatorial endorsements from his Florida congressional colleagues during the week. He now has public support from 11 of the 19 GOP House members in addition to himself. Perhaps the most prominent is Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has also endorsed Rep. Donalds, as has the President. 

In all, Mr. Donalds keeps adding to an impressive early support list that he hopes will keep Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the race to replace her term-limited husband. 

Michigan

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the open 2026 Governor’s race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

Mr. James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). Mr. James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46% margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48%, in Sen. Peters’ favor. 

The following year redistricting created an open US House seat in his home area. Mr. James would win a ½ point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor’s race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest. It will feature a Republican, very possibly Rep. James; a Democrat, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the leading candidate to date; and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running seriously as an Independent candidate.

Virginia

The general election nominees for Governor are set once the state’s signature petition deadline expired. The only two qualifiers are former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The lack of other qualifiers under the state’s onerous petition signature gathering requirements mean Virginia’s June primary will be meaningless in the Governor’s race. Therefore, we will effectively see a much longer general election cycle this year. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2025.

STATE AND LOCAL

New York

Mayor Eric Adams announced last week that he will run as an Independent in this year’s mayoral race. The significance of his move will allow him to avoid a Democratic primary where polling found him faring poorly. With his bribery charges now officially dismissed, Mr. Adams will have more time to improve his image since he will move directly to the general election. His likely opponent will be former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), so he will still have a difficult road to re-election, but this move certainly gives him a chance to perform better.

St. Louis

In the runoff election for a full four-year term, Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) fell to City Alderwoman Cara Spencer, a fellow Democrat. The 64-36% victory margin was not surprising since Ms. Spencer placed first in the original election, leading the Mayor by a 2:1 margin.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty