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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
A New York judge has disqualified Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. from appearing on the New York election ballot, ruling the address the candidate used in his submission documentation is not valid.
This is yet another blow to Kennedy's floundering campaign, and further underscores the difficult road any non-major party contender is forced to traverse just to obtain ballot access in all 50 states.
Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in 18 states, including three that appear to be highly-competitive: Michigan, New Mexico and North Carolina.
Green Party
A state judge has ruled against the Nevada Democratic Party's lawsuit that would have disqualified the Green Party from being on the Silver State's 2024 ballot. The judicial order means that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will be on the state ballot, which Democrats obviously believe hurt Kamala Harris' chances there.
According to the national Green Party, the entity has secured a 2024 ballot line in 21 states, and Stein will appear on four more ballots as an Independent. The party leadership is actively petitioning or awaiting certification in an additional 18 states.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Hawaii
There was not a great deal of competition in the Aloha State primary. Senator Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, was renominated with a landslide 90.5% of the Democratic primary vote.
Hirono will now face former state Representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52% of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25%. A similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono.
Minnesota
Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) captured more than 90% of the vote in her Democratic primary, and is a heavy favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, former NBA professional basketball player Royce White. He defeated banker Joe Fraser and six other contenders to claim his party's nomination.
After 2nd District Republican Taylor Rahm dropped his congressional bid to join Trump's campaign staff, it became evident that attorney Joe Teirab would be the Republican to challenge Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in what could become a competitive general election.
Though the safely-Democratic 3rd District was open because Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) chose not to seek re-election, state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Deephaven) surprisingly found herself unopposed in the party primary. She will be a strong favorite to defeat Republican former judge and legislator Tad Jude in the general election.
Though facing credible opposition, polling was projecting that three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) would score a big win. Her final tally – 56% of the vote – was certainly enough to clinch a comfortable victory, but not as wide a win as the pre-election polling had projected. She will easily secure a fourth two-year term in the general election.
In western Minnesota's expansive 7th District, Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Regal), who lost the official party endorsement at the Republican state convention earlier in the year, rebounded to score a primary win that was just short of a 2:1 drubbing over businessman Steve Boyd. Fischbach will easily win her third term in November.
Wisconsin
With Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) running unopposed in the Democratic primary, Republican businessman Eric Hovde trounced his two minor GOP opponents to post an 87% victory percentage. Senator Baldwin is the clear favorite to win the general election, but Hovde will be able to keep pace in advertising with his strong, self-funded media campaign.
In the competitive 3rd Congressional District, business owner Rebecca Cooke, who had robust outside support, recorded large percentages in the rural areas – enough to overcome state Rep. Katrina Shankland's (D-Steven's Point) overwhelming strength in Portage County – scoring a 49-42% Democratic primary victory. Cooke will now face freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in what should be a hotly- contested general election.
In the Green Bay-anchored 8th CD, businessman Tony Wied, with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, slipped past ex-state Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) to clinch the open Republican nomination and become the heavy favorite to win the general election in November. Assuming he comes out on top, Wied will succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) in the seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+20.
TX-18
Battling several prominent candidates before the 88 Harris County Democratic Party convention delegates, former two-term Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was chosen as the party standard-bearer in the general election to replace the late US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).
Turner and former City Councilwoman, ex-US Senate candidate, and previous congressional contender Amanda Edwards tied on the first ballot, necessitating a runoff vote because the deadlock prevented either from securing majority support.
Turner then won the runoff vote. He proceeds into the general election as a prohibitive favorite opposite Republican nominee Lana Centonze. He will not run in the special election to fill the balance of the term. The late Congresswoman's daughter, Erica Lee Carter, has expressed interest in running for the two-month stint and will likely not have significant opposition.
SENATE
Michigan
Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent.
The New York Times/Siena College poll, taken Aug. 5-8, found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43%, which is in line with most other surveys of the race.
The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate. Its survey, taken Aug. 8-11, saw Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38% lead.
The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.
New Jersey
Senator Bob Menendez (D) is scheduled to resign his seat on Tuesday, and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has announced that he will appoint his former gubernatorial chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term.
Representative Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is the heavy favorite to win the general election and begin his six-year term in January. Senator Menendez was convicted of multiple bribery counts and awaits sentencing. He vows to appeal the conviction.
North Dakota
A newly-released Lake Partners Research survey of the North Dakota Senate race — the first published poll since mid-June — sees movement toward the Democratic candidate, while still yielding Sen. Kevin Cramer (R) a double-digit lead, 51-38%.
The previous, mid-June poll, from Public Opinion Strategies, projected Sen. Cramer's lead at 37 points.
Very likely, the ultimate outcome will fall somewhere in between these two surveys. Look for Sen. Cramer to easily win re-election to a second six-year term in a state that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+37.
Pennsylvania
A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results — the best so far, in fact, for Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College and the Bullfinch Group.
The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey's lead to be a whopping 51-37% over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the Senator's advantage at 51-39%.
This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver's seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.
HOUSE
UT-2
Seven weeks after the Utah primary, a winner has finally been determined in the state's 2nd Congressional District. Businessman Colby Jenkins (R) conceded the race to Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City), ending a counting period that continued to drag onward.
The final vote count saw the two candidates separated by just 176 votes, which is still enough for Maloy to clinch her renomination bid. She is now a strong favorite to win a full term in the general election against Democratic nominee Nathaniel Woodward, an attorney.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates UT-2 as R+23. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as 81st most-vulnerable in the House Republican Conference.
GOVERNOR
Delaware
According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey, the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long's alleged campaign finance violations – failing to disclose money paid to her husband – has hurt her bid for Governor.
The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary, with a 30-23% spread ahead of the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November.
Governor John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term; instead, he is running for Mayor of Wilmington, the small state's largest city.
New Jersey
As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) this week signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for Governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic Mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), Sean Spiller (Montclair), as well as former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.
Governor Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field — especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.
North Carolina
The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Governor Roy Cooper (D). The poll finds Stein topping Robinson, 43-38%, even though all other Republicans are leading.
In the presidential race, former President Trump is running ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44%.
In the open Attorney General contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38% advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte).
And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37% edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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