Democrat comfortably ahead of potential GOP rivals
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A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven-point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.
The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (Dec. 18, 2024 – Jan. 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period’s length reduces the accuracy figure, and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.
The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38% on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16%. This suggests that Sen. Warner’s support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin’s backing among Republicans, but even these numbers are not supported in other similar surveys as detected for the open 2025 Governor’s race.
Furthermore, an incumbent Senator only commanding 16% of the Independent voting segment is abnormally low, and likely another reason to question the overall reliability of this VCU survey.
It is also important to note that neither Sen. Warner nor Governor Youngkin have announced their 2026 Senate candidacy. It is presumed that Sen. Warner will seek a fourth term, but no formal announcement has been made to date. Speculation has been relatively heavy about Mr. Youngkin running for the Senate, but the Governor has yet to acknowledge interest in such a race. He is also rumored to be looking toward a 2028 presidential run, and if so, challenging Sen. Warner will not likely be his next political move.
The VCU pollsters also tested the open 2025 Governor’s campaign and find former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, at this point the consensus Democratic presumptive nominee, and Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the presumptive Republican nominee, posting similar partisan numbers as found in the Senate race.
According to the VCU results, Ms. Spanberger would lead the Lt. Governor, 44-34%. It is here where we can draw a direct comparison with other recent surveys. For example, three other polls conducted during the period beginning Jan. 6 and concluding Jan. 20 reveal much different results.
The most recent survey, from the co/efficient polling firm, sees the two gubernatorial candidates tied at 40% apiece.
Christopher Newport University tested the Virginia electorate over the Jan. 6-13 period and found Ms. Spanberger recording a five percentage point advantage, 44-39%.
Earlier, Emerson College surveyed the Commonwealth just after the first of the year and they arrived at a ballot test conclusion similar to co/efficient’s results, with Spanberger edging Earle-Sears, 42-41%.
Therefore, the VCU survey conducted of adults and not registered or likely voters, seems to be an outlier because three other polls conducted within the same sampling period with more refined respondent universes project much closer results.
Whether a Warner-Youngkin Senate race materializes remains to be seen. If the contest does form, we can count on seeing a much closer contest than the VCU poll suggests, and one that would likely go down to the wire. The current prevailing wisdom among Virginia politicos, however, is that such a challenge campaign is unlikely to form.
The more likely Senate scenario sees Sen. Warner seeking a fourth term and easily winning re-election without facing a major Republican opponent.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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