Up for Grabs

Battlegrounds are trending Trump, but victory remains uncertain

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Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were beginning to become competitive for the GOP.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.  Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes — from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020, but are strong potential Trump states in 2024 — the former President would need to win the national election.

Since the beginning of this year, 15 pollsters have conducted a total of 62 polls in these three states, and Trump has not trailed in any of them. If the trio vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are clear battlegrounds.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip, as compared to those where the newly-crowned Republican nominee could do well, but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia. One victory in any of these once solidly-blue strongholds, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

MAINE

A Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in the Pine Tree State, Maine, as polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points. However, this is offset by weaker support in the southern ME-1 district. In other words, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine but, owing to the state’s Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system, it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state, and would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

MINNESOTA

The North Star State is the most loyal Democratic stronghold in modern presidential campaign history. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican in the national election was in 1972, when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

NEW JERSEY

In the Garden State, Republicans poll better than they run; unlike some of the southern states, where the opposite is true. The latest publicly-released survey of New Jersey likely general election voters found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40% lead over President Biden. Trump is unlikely to achieve this margin when actual votes are cast, however, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

VIRGINIA

The Old Dominion, too, is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety — meaning the city and the Virginia and Maryland suburbs — is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread, found in a July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey, is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

POSSIBLE PATHS TO VICTORY

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, may be different. Both states are small, campaigning there is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories — certainly since 2016 — both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican Governor in four straight elections, and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him; if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the Governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top. 

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to GOP presidential candidates in recent election cycles. Since 2012, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1% of the vote, as compared to the Democratic contenders' 50.5%. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8%, compared to the Republicans’ 42.1%. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3% Hispanic; 40.5% Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing; continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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