The Closest House Races

Looking ahead to 2026

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Now that the election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. 

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division also yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52% of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners divided just about evenly between the two parties. 

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions, and Democrats five. 

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes, but in the opposite finishing order. 

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Trump carried California’s 13th District by over five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly was unique in this election. Mr. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched. 

Regardless of the reasons for Mr. Duarte’s razor thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second-closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located over 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Representative Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Representative Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799 vote margin. This, however, is not Ms. Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Ms. Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this will again be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.  

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4% of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9%, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Mr. Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans holding their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Representatives Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election, a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Representative Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).  Redistricting, however, has placed her in a +6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite former President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Mr. Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3% of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Mr. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51% plateau.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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