Texas Tussle in the Works

Early poll shows Cornyn trailing Paxton in likely 2026 GOP primary contest

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A Republican primary battle between Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has been brewing for months, if not years, and a new political survey suggests the long anticipated challenge is about to begin.

A Jan. 4-6 Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate finds Sen. Cornyn trailing AG Paxton in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. Senator Cornyn has repeatedly confirmed that he will run for a fifth term, and Mr. Paxton, while not yet publicly committing to challenging the Senator, does not deny he will make such a move. 

According to the Victory Insights ballot test of Texas Republican voters, Mr. Paxton would lead the Senator, 42-34% – a low support number for any longtime incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23% among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24% among those describing themselves as constitutional conservatives. Senator Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15% spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18% within the self-described moderate Republican segment. 

First elected Attorney General in 2024, Mr. Paxton has been the center point of much controversy; yet he continues to politically survive. 

He was indicted for SEC violations in his private practice not related to his public service.  The federal government held the indictment for years before finally settling the case in 2024. He also faced a mass staff resignation with certain individuals accusing the Attorney General of taking bribes. Mr. Paxton's extramarital affair became public knowledge, and while being impeached in the state House of Representatives last year, he survived a removal from office vote in the state Senate. 

Despite his various travails, Mr. Paxton has continued to win re-election. He has averaged 54.3% of the vote in his three statewide general elections, and 62.4% in his three Republican primary campaigns. For his third term in 2022, Mr. Paxton was forced into a runoff election to win the party nomination, but easily defeated Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush by a whopping 66.5 – 33.5% majority.

Senator Cornyn has proved stronger than Paxton in GOP primaries, however. Over his four US Senate campaigns, the Senator has averaged 73.5% in Republican nomination elections. Mr. Cornyn was also elected as Attorney General and to the Texas Supreme Court over his long career. In his four US Senate general election campaigns, Mr. Cornyn has averaged 56.3% of the vote.

Expect this primary challenge to soon launch and last the better part of a year. Texas features early primaries, so the next statewide nomination campaign will culminate on March 3, 2026. 

Considering Paxton's personal history, upsetting Cornyn for the Republican nomination would put the Senate seat in danger for the GOP in the general election. 

As we saw in November, a Texas general election can become competitive even though the last time a Democrat won a major statewide race in the state was 30+ years ago in 1994. Then-Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) raised a huge $94.6 million for his 2024 race against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and while polling continued to show toss-up results the Democrat still lost by more than eight percentage points.

While Mr. Allred proved himself a strong fundraiser and a credible candidate, it wasn't the year for a Democrat to win a Texas statewide race. The Biden energy policies were harmful to the state's economy and the southern border situation had a more adverse effect upon this domain than any other. With President-Elect Trump racking up a 13+ point win in the state, his strongest Texas performance of his three national runs, Allred had little chance of overcoming the continuous political wind blowing in his face.

Against Mr. Paxton in a midterm election, however, the situation may change. Should Mr. Allred run again, and an intense Republican primary battle could encourage him to try again among other factors, we would see a legitimately competitive general election with an uncertain outcome since the issue matrix is likely to be much different in 2026.

Clearly, this early data and political chatter suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of national political attention, as will the general election. This one early Victory Insights poll notwithstanding, Sen. Cornyn must still be rated the favorite to prevail in what promises to be a raucous coming intraparty battle.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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