Cuellar in the crosshairs
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Republicans are working to recruit a new challenger against veteran Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), and they may have found their man.
Reports are surfacing that the GOP leadership is attempting to recruit Webb County Judge (referred to as County Executive in most places) Tano Tijerina, who is a new Republican. Saying that, "hard work, faith, family, and freedom" were "no longer pillars in the Democrat party," Mr. Tijerina converted to the Republican Party in December. Now, the party leaders hope he will challenge Rep. Cuellar in 2026.
Henry Cuellar was first elected to Congress in 2004 and has since become the most bipartisan member of the House Democratic Conference. He is facing a federal indictment on bribery and money laundering charges with a trial scheduled to begin in the Spring with jury selection currently scheduled for March 31. It remains to be seen if the Trump Justice Department moves forward with this case.
Despite being under a well-publicized indictment, Mr. Cuellar was re-elected to an 11th term in November with a 52.8 - 47.2% margin over retired Navy Commander Jay Furman (R), who moved to the district from another state for the singular purpose of opposing Mr. Cuellar.
Therefore, with Furman having little in the way of local connections or history within the district the Congressman was easily able to outraise his opponent and ended the campaign with a better than 3:1 spending advantage. Thus, Mr. Furman's unfamiliarity with the local region made him a weak candidate though he was still able to outpoll Rep. Cuellar in three counties.
The 28th District begins in the eastern sector of San Antonio and then moves south all the way to the Mexican border. Mr. Tijerina's Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the district's largest entity encompassing approximately 35% of the CD's population. Bexar County, where San Antonio lies, is the second largest of the district's nine counties, holding about 33% of the constituency.
CD-28's population is 72% Hispanic, yet in the 2024 election President Trump carried the South Texas region for the first time since 1912 according to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians. He topped Kamala Harris in the Cuellar District by a 51-48% clip.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7, but the latest statistics might suggest a tightening of that rating. Dave's Redistricting App calculates a 55.2D – 42.7R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.
While Rep. Cuellar still maintains a partisan advantage, his edge is far from insurmountable. Mr. Tijerina has averaged 88.2% of the vote in his three countywide elections, which makes him a very formidable prospective opponent.
At this early point in the 2026 election cycle, conversion opportunities for either party appear few and far between, and virtually non-existent in Texas. Should the Republicans successfully recruit Mr. Tijerina into this race, the GOP would have scored a clear point in their favor and a new seriously competitive challenge race would soon form.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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