Sununu Would Top Shaheen

New poll gauges mood of Granite State electorate

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A newly-released statewide poll suggests that former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R) would defeat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in a Senatorial contest. This conclusion derives from a hypothetical 2026 US Senate survey that a Granite State media outlet sponsored. The poll also uncovered a Shaheen negative, of which there is little she can do to reverse.

The Feb. 26 - March 1 political study, commissioned through the NH Journal online news site, finds Mr. Sununu topping Sen. Shaheen 54.4 – 45.6%. Obviously, respondents were pushed for an answer since the ballot test result reveals no undecided or won't respond replies.

Whether such a race materializes must be considered unlikely. Mr. Sununu, while Governor, had been asked repeatedly about his interest in forging a Senate race, particularly against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the 2022 election cycle, to which he consistently expressed little desire in becoming a Senator. This, even when he might have become the majority-deciding 51st Republican vote, which at the time, looked to be the number Republicans could realistically obtain. 

Perhaps of more concern to the Senator than a potential pairing with Mr. Sununu, however, is the question relating to her age: "If re-elected, she would be 85 years old at the end of her term in office. How concerned are you that age would impact Sen. Shaheen's ability to effectively serve New Hampshire?"

Over 60% of the New Hampshire respondents voiced trepidation. A total of 25.8% said they would be "extremely concerned," while an additional 34.6% (a combined total of 60.4%) replied that they would be "somewhat concerned." The situation surrounding President Biden's last year in office has highlighted personal ability when reaching an advanced age according to the poll analysis. 

The poll news, however, is not all bad for Sen. Shaheen. If paired in 2026 with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), whom she defeated in 2020, Sen. Shaheen would lead 55.1 – 44.9%. If Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut were her Republican opponent, Sen. Shaheen would post a 58.9 – 41.1% advantage.    

Senator Shaheen has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth US Senate term, only that she will make a decision about running again in the next few months.

Her votes relating to the Trump cabinet member confirmations suggest that the Senator may be leaning toward running since she was one of the more bipartisan members in terms of supporting the Republican appointees. In fact, she backed nine of the nominees, the most of any Democratic Senator, along with Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

The Shaheen situation concerns the Democratic leadership. Even though the party has the advantage on the overall 2026 Senate election map because the Democrats must defend only 13 seats as compared to the Republicans' 22, the early developments have not gone their way.

With Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announcing surprise retirement decisions, the Democrats must now add two more competitive open seats to their priority list. Should Sen. Shaheen retire or face former Gov. Sununu, even more resources that could be used to attack Republican held positions would instead be diverted into increased defensive spending. 

With Sens. Peters and Smith already deciding to depart, great attention will be paid to Sen. Shaheen's upcoming decision. Depending upon how her situation unfolds, it is possible that New Hampshire could become another key 2026 battleground state.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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