Poll shows Rep. Byron Donalds ahead in '26 Florida gubernatorial race
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A new Florida Republican primary poll suggests that three-term US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holds an early commanding lead over selected potential 2026 candidates who will compete for the right to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis.
Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears as a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters' poll and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1% advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former US Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.
It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.
Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state's conservative voter base.
Governor DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds' current standing in the 2026 Governor's campaign as entirely positive, however. Mr. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, Mr. DeSantis' opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.
The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire, new slate of statewide officials.
With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump's Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the US Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida's new Attorney General.
With Ms. Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lt. Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor's race.
Furthermore, the state's Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle's 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Mr. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new CFO.
The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Representative Cord Byrd in 2022.
Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.
Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.
Florida voter registration largely tells the story.
At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals, according to the Florida Secretary of State's official voter registration statistical report. But according to the most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, Republicans not only have more party members than Sunshine State Democrats – they hold an astonishing 1,156,082-individual advantage over Florida Dems. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the past four years.
While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to the various statewide public officials coming via his appointments.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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