Stefanik Nomination Yanked

GOP shores up razor-thin margin in the House

If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.

US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has agreed to withdraw from the confirmation process for her nominated position as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Instead, she will remain in the House and may be added to the party's leadership team in some capacity. This means there will be no special election for her seat later this year. 

"With a very tight Majority, I don't want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise's seat. The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations," President Trump stated during his announcement of the decision to pull the Stefanik nomination, according to a Fox News report.

With Republicans performing poorly in special elections, even in GOP districts, and poised for what could be another disappointing result in a Florida election next week, risking another special in a more competitive district than those already lost at the state legislative level in Iowa and Pennsylvania is something the White House and GOP leadership wanted to avoid.

The New York political situation in Congressional District 21 was also beginning to pose internal problems, reminiscent of the GOP losing this very seat in a 2009 special election when then-Rep. John McHugh (R) was appointed Secretary of the Army. The campaign to succeed him resulted in another gift Democratic victory.

In New York, there are no primaries to fill district vacancies. Rather, the party leadership from the affected counties chooses a nominee. Thus, only one election is held. The 21st District Democratic chairs had already nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, but Republicans had yet to act.

Sixteen years ago, the Republican chairs nominated state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, which riled local conservatives who considered her too liberal for the party.  The Conservative Party then nominated their own candidate, businessman Doug Hoffman, resulting in a chasm split between the local Conservatives and Republicans. 

The situation ended with Scozzafava, when clear she would lose, leaving the race three days before the election and endorsing Democrat Bill Owens, who would win the seat.  Because Scozzafava's name remained on the ballot, the 8,582 votes that she drew were enough to deny Hoffman a victory and allowed Owens to win with 48.3% of the vote. He would go onto win two more elections before retiring.

With the party chairs headed toward deadlock in choosing an individual to replace Stefanik, the Conservatives again threatening to field their own candidate should the party choice be unacceptable to them, and without Rep. Stefanik or President Trump weighing in, the situation was once again beginning to deteriorate.

Additionally, Gov. Kathy Hochul and the Democratic legislative leadership were looking to potentially pass a bill that would allow the Governor more latitude in scheduling special elections. Thus, Ms. Hochul was passively threatening to hold the seat vacant until she could extract further funding from the Trump Administration.

Considering the Republicans' poor special election performances in the recent past, the House majority margin is too thin to risk losing another seat before the regular elections. This is especially true in light of the FL-6 race that will be decided Tuesday, where the party is forced to work hard in the final few days to secure a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

Looking at the New York political climate, the Democratic power structure that could delay the election, and the situation where a split between the Republicans and Conservatives could again occur to cost them an election, it was viewed as best to withdraw Stefanik in order to ensure the 21st District did not come open. 

In order to pass President Trump's "big beautiful bill" that would include the tax cut extensions plus other key points of his agenda, every vote in the Republicans' razor-thin House majority is necessary. Therefore, at the end of such a process, the move to keep Rep. Stefanik where she is could prove determinative.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty