All eyes on the Sunshine State
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Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees on Tuesday, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced that he would be nominated for the US Attorney General's position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Mr. Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.
Mr. Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Mr. Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.
Governor Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Mr. Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Mr. Gaetz are scheduled for today.
The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida's northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida's safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th-safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today's special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.
Vying for the party nomination are ten candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state's 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today's vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Mr. Patronis secured his top endorsements.
Assuming victory tonight, Mr. Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Ms. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
The situation in the state's 6th District is just as clear. There, state Senator Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today's special Republican primary. Like Mr. Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more area elected officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today's election.
The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State's Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.
FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th-safest Republican House seat.
Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight's winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.
Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Messrs. Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
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Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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