Sen. Tuberville to Run for Governor

Stealing 'political magic' from other contenders once again?

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Though he has yet to make a formal announcement, first-term Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville (R) has reportedly made the decision to eschew running for re-election and will instead enter his state’s open gubernatorial campaign.

Assuming the news stories and X tweets are correct, Alabama will become the sixth state to host an open Senate campaign. Mr. Tuberville will be joining Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the group that will not be seeking re-election in 2026.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term, meaning we could now see crowded Republican primaries for both Governor and Senator.

In the Governor’s race, no one has officially declared as yet, but Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) has indicated he will soon make an announcement. State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate (R), ex-Secretary of State John Merrill (R), and former corporate CEO and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lew Burdette (R) are among the individuals mentioned as likely to run for Governor. For the Democrats, only Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin has been discussed as a potential contender.

It will be interesting to see whether a Tuberville candidacy will dissuade any of the aforementioned from running for Governor, thus allowing them to take advantage of the opportunity to switch lanes and enter an open Senate campaign.

Mr. Tuberville began his political career in 2020 with his run for the Senate, after gaining notoriety as a major college football coach, principally at Alabama’s Auburn University.

From a historical perspective, the state’s electorate saw a great deal of Senate action once President Trump began his first term. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was appointed US Attorney General, thus leading to his resignation from the legislative post he held since the beginning of 1997. 

After serving about a year in his new position, AG Sessions experienced a major falling out with President Trump that resulted in his resignation. Mr. Sessions would later return to Alabama in an attempt to regain his Senate seat.

In the 2017 special election to replace Sen. Sessions, Democrat Doug Jones took advantage of Republican discord and the party nominating a weak candidate when appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) lost the special primary. The developments paved the way for Mr. Jones to score an upset victory. 

Turning to the 2020 general election, Sen. Jones’ political magic disappeared when Mr. Tuberville obtained 60% of the vote to convert the seat to the Republican column.

Earlier, in that year’s Republican primary, Mr. Tuberville defeated ex-Sen. Sessions 61-39% after the two qualified for a runoff from the seven-candidate Republican primary.  Mr. Tuberville finished first in the initial election with 33.4% while Mr. Sessions garnered 31.6 percent.  

The fact that a former multi-term Senator could only attract little more than 30% in his own party’s primary doomed him for the runoff election, and Mr. Tuberville took full advantage of the situation with help from President Trump.

During Mr. Tuberville’s initial term in the Senate, he established a strong conservative record and reputation, which should allow him to begin the gubernatorial race in the favorite’s position. As with most Alabama statewide elections, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to claiming victory in November, and the 2026 preview fails to suggest any deviation from this pattern.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate for Alabama a 63.9R – 34.5D partisan lean, thus giving further credence to the analysis that the eventual gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican nominees will be heavy favorites to again win the Yellowhammer State’s November 2026 elections.     

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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