Sen. Lindsey Graham's Budding Primary Challenge

Incumbents in Texas, Louisiana also facing potential challengers in 2026

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Several Republican US Senators are already seeing potential GOP primary opponents beginning to make moves to launch their 2026 challenge campaigns.

One such potential primary is developing in South Carolina. Senator Lindsey Graham said this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year. Concurrently, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to make public statements confirming that he is testing the political waters for a primary challenge against Sen. Graham. 

Representative Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham in 2014, also says she is considering making another bid, though recently she has been less vociferous about making such a move. 

Representative Norman was initially elected to his 5th Congressional District position in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R), who resigned to join the first Trump Administration. Prior to serving in federal office, Mr. Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2006.

Congressman Norman has averaged 61.1% of the vote in his four regular election campaigns, after winning the initial special election with just 51%. The result was considered an underperformance in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization now rates as R+15, and The Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 90th safest seat in the House Republican Conference. 

For his part, Sen. Graham has averaged 62% of the vote in his last two Republican primaries (2020 and 2014). In the 2020 general election, despite having an opponent, current-but-outgoing Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison raised more than $132 million against him, or $20 million more than Mr. Graham commanded; even so, the Senator won the election by just over ten percentage points in what became a national campaign. Therefore, denying the Senator renomination or re-election in 2026 will be no easy feat.

While Rep. Norman confirmed his interest in a Senate challenge this week, he did not commit to running. The Congressman previously stated he also had a potential interest in entering the open race for Governor, but he is no longer making any comments about this move. While Sen. Graham has over $15.6 million cash-on-hand in his year end campaign finance report, Rep. Norman ended the 2024 campaign cycle with $601,000 in the bank, approximately $15 million behind the Senator.

Mr. Norman has been a strong supporter of President Trump throughout the latter's political career and would likely work for an endorsement if he were to run for the Senate. Senator Graham, while originally an opponent of Mr. Trump's in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, has since become one of his stronger supporters in the Senate. 

Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the President would potentially support Graham, or simply stay out of the race. Defeating a Republican incumbent in a primary without a Trump endorsement has proven a very difficult task for GOP intraparty challengers around the country.

Senator Graham is certainly not the only Republican Senator who may face a primary in 2026. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will engage in a campaign opposite State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, while simultaneously, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) may see his state's Attorney General, Ken Paxton, launch his own campaign. 

Talk continues that Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) may also be challenged for renomination, but nothing concrete has yet developed in their states. In Florida, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) says he will oppose whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Sen. Marco Rubio upon the latter's confirmation as Secretary of State.   

Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle evolve in South Carolina next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP opponents. In a strongly conservative state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever earns the GOP nomination will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November of 2026.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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