Republicans Take Florida; Dems Win in Wisconsin

Badger State ballot suggests Trump, not GOP, commands turnout

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Despite the prospect of a Democratic upset in Florida's 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Mr. Patronis won. Like in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57% range, were well under President Trump's performance in both districts.

Turning to the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democratic circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45% margin to maintain the party's 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state's congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being outraised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Mr. Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented, before his resignation under Florida's resign to run law, a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD 6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously-established base. 

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57% victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Mr. Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Ms. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine's opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as "a bad ass teacher."

Wisconsin may be the most significant of last night's elections. The Badger State supported President Trump, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on the same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument – before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts, but not the congressional boundaries – the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien). 

Turnout in all of these races was high. In both congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida's 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is also high.

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty