Texas' 18th District vacant once again
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Just hours after attending President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday, freshman Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) suddenly passed away, thus leaving the Lone Star State's 18th Congressional District (CD) seat vacant for the second time in less than a year.
Representative Turner had earlier been diagnosed with bone cancer, but declared himself cancer-free before the 2024 election. Prior to winning the US House seat, Mr. Turner served two four-year terms as mayor of Houston, as well as 27 years in the Texas House of Representatives.
Governor Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a special election to replace the late Congressman. Candidates will compete in an initial vote. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance to a runoff election that the Governor would subsequently schedule.
Representative Turner's predecessor, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), won 14 consecutive US House elections from this center city district until she succumbed to cancer in July of 2024. Therefore, this will be the second time in seven months that the 18th District will be vacant due to an incumbent's death.
The Y-shaped 18th District is fully contained within Harris County and lies inside the confines of the city of Houston, encompassing the downtown area. The seat is strongly Democratic.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+43; the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 73.6D – 24.4R partisan lean; and the Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank TX-18 as the 46th-safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the battle to replace the late Congressman will largely be conducted with Democratic candidates.
After Rep. Jackson Lee passed away, the local politicians yielded to her daughter, Erica Lee Carter (D), to fill the balance of her mother's term. Ms. Carter did not compete for the full term, but questions will now arise as to whether she will run for the seat in what will be a new special election likely within two to three months.
Another probable candidate is former Houston City Councilwoman and US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards. In 2024, Ms. Edwards challenged then-Rep. Jackson Lee but failed to force her into a runoff election.
Approximately ten state House districts and two state Senate seats overlap Congressional District 18, not to mention various Houston City Councilmembers, and Harris County officials who also share constituents at least to a small degree. Therefore, we could see a number of candidates emerge from different sectors.
The 18th CD has over 576,000 eligible voters, and a voting age population comprised of more than 80% minority residents (39.8% Hispanic; 34.4% Black; and 6.2% Asian). A total of 19.4% are White, with less than one percent mixed- or multiple-race.
The Turner vacancy causes the Democratic Conference to recede to 214 members as compared to the Republicans' 218. The two vacant Florida House seats – one formerly occupied by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R), who left to join the OAN news network, and the other vacated by Rep. Mike Waltz (R), who went on to become President Trump's National Security Advisor – will remain unoccupied until the April 1 special general elections. Shortly, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will be confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations, thus dropping the GOP to 217 members.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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