Big moves ahead for state-level CEOs?
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A sitting Governor and a recently-retired ex-state chief executive have key political decisions to soon make.
Both Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) are reportedly weighing running for the Senate in 2026 and/or organizing a 2028 presidential campaign. Each says he is not yet ready to announce any future political plans.
A third Governor, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer (D), is in a similar position, but she is more definitive about running for President in 2028, so it is highly doubtful that she will enter her state’s open 2026 Senate race.
The two men are under intense pressure from party leaders to run for the Senate next year. Polling shows both Gov. Kemp, term-limited in 2026, and ex-Gov. Cooper, who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 because of North Carolina’s term limit law, leading their respective incumbent Senator of the opposite party, Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC).
The latest Georgia poll (WPA Intelligence; Jan. 14-15; 500 GA likely voters; live interview) projects Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff, 46-40%, while the other tested potential challengers, i.e., US Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), and Mike Collins (R-Jackson), all trail.
Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters (March 4-5; 662 NC registered voters) sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort four points behind Mr. Cooper, 47-43%.
While it is typical to see a Republican trailing in a North Carolina poll – there is usually a two-point under-poll factor for GOP candidates in the state – a poor Tillis job approval ratio of 25:46% favorable to unfavorable according to the PPP data should be of obvious concern. Some of the disapproval is coming from Republican voters, however, who don’t believe Sen. Tillis has been sufficiently loyal to President Trump.
Governor Kemp says he understands the need to make a decision in the near future, but will not do so until the Georgia state legislative session adjourns shortly after the beginning of next month. Mr. Kemp is also chairman of the Republican Governors’ Association, which he says significantly adds to his time commitments for the 2026 election cycle.
For his part, Mr. Cooper says he will make a decision about running for the Senate “in the next couple of months.”
For North Carolina’s Cooper, running for President may be an easier decision than for Gov. Kemp. In what will be an open 2028 presidential campaign for both parties, the Democratic field will be in free-for-all status because they do not have an incumbent Vice President. With the paucity of Democratic elected officials coming from the south, Mr. Cooper could reasonably build a southern strategy in the Democratic primaries that would make him a major factor with a large number of committed delegates.
For Gov. Kemp, the presidential road to the Republican nomination would be rockier since incumbent VP JD Vance should have the inside track to the 2028 party nomination. While sitting Vice Presidents have often not fared well in general elections, they have been near perfect in securing party nominations. With Mr. Vance already knowing the 2028 presidential campaign will be open, he would begin such a campaign with a major advantage.
At this point, however, since we usually don’t see recent Governors running for Senate because they often find the transition from an executive to being one of 100 in a legislative body difficult, it would not be shocking to see both men decline the Senate opportunity.
If so, the Georgia Republicans are ready with a political bench. Already the aforementioned three US Representatives: Carter, McCormick and Collins, are waiting in the wings to run for the Senate, and there are seven additional GOP statewide officers each with a winning electoral record.
In North Carolina, the Democrats have five sitting statewide officials, although two are unlikely to run for the Senate. Governor Josh Stein (D) was just elected in November and probably would not give up his current position so quickly to run for the Senate. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who was elected in 1996 when defeating NASCAR champion Richard Petty (R) and will turn 80 years old shortly after the November 2026 election, is another who will not run for the Senate.
The other office holders, including Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former Governor Jim Hunt and an ex-Charlotte area state Senator, could become Senate candidates. The other statewide Democratic officials who were elected in 2024 and would have a 2026 free ride, are Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Jackson and Superintendent of Public Instruction Mo Green.
In the US House delegation, Reps. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount), Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh) and Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) could conceivably enter a US Senate race. Therefore, even without Mr. Cooper, the Democrats will have credible options with whom to challenge Sen. Tillis.
Regardless of who challenges the incumbent Senators in Georgia and North Carolina, both states will be on the 2026 political front burner.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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