Population Drifts, Power Shifts

Congressional reapportionment: new projections highlight the winners and losers in DC

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In October, the American Redistricting Project (ARP) released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe. 

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping its delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State loses representation; the first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census, with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two it added in 2020, for a grand total of 42. 

Likewise, both organizations agree that four states – Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina and Utah – will gain one new seat, while another four – Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island – will lose a seat.

The case of Oregon is especially interesting. The data suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat it gained in the 2020 census; it is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next. Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

While the ARP and Brennan Center projections share several commonalities, some key differences also exist.

Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer; however, ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both states holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but the Brennan Center calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one. Additionally, ARP believes Wisconsin will remain at its current count of eight seats, while the Brennan Center projects the Badger State will suffer a one-seat loss.

The Brennan organization also tracked population shifts by region, beginning with the decade of the 1960s, to show how much the country's migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the sixties, three geographic regions dominated the nation's share of inhabitants: The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts; the South 124; and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17. 

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from its level in the 1960s, surging from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West, meanwhile, would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 1960s.

The Midwest would suffer the largest reduction, with its 125-seat total contracting to 88. The Northeast, meanwhile, would see a similar slump, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 Congressional Districts the region held in the 1960s. 

Over the next five years, regional growth patterns – now well-established – are almost certain to persist; the South and West will continue their robust expansion, while the Midwest and Northeast, with their colder climates, will again attract fewer inhabitants. Therefore, though the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will likely be close to the mark.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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