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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Update – November 15, 2024

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SENATE


2026 Elections: Two Senators Make Decisions 


A pair of Senators, thought to be either on the retirement list or among those running for another office, have both announced they will seek re-election in 2026. 


Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), completing her 28th year in the Senate, announced that she will run for a sixth term in the next election. Speculation was brisk that she would opt for retirement.


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Rumors that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) would run for his state's open Governor's position in 2026 were also quelled this week when Sen. Tuberville announced his plan to seek re-election for a second term.


HOUSE


AK-At Large: More Votes Counted 


A new batch of ballots were released in the Alaska at-large congressional race and GOP challenger Nick Begich, III continues to move closer to victory.

  

At this point, Mr. Begich has a 9,435-vote lead over US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). He stands at 49.1% of the counted vote versus Rep. Peltola's 46.0%. 


The number of uncounted or unreceived ballots could be as high as 44,000 votes. 


Should no candidate receive 50% plus one vote once the final count is announced, the Ranked Choice Voting round would then begin. To overcome Mr. Begich's lead, Rep. Peltola will have to secure at least 60% of the remaining votes. Ranked Choice could change the outcome, but currently Mr. Begich appears to be in the driver's seat.


CA-45: Rep. Steel Teetering 


Southern California Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) has seen her lead over attorney Derek Tran (D) almost dwindle away. With as many as 26,000 votes yet to be counted, Rep. Steel now leads by only 349 votes, meaning this election is up for grabs. 


A Steel loss would be a serious blow to Republican majority status, especially with three members now leaving the House to accept, or potentially accept, new Administration positions.


At this point, it appears Republicans have secured 219 seats, counting the three members with appointments, though Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) already resigning could reduce this number to 218. Democrats, meanwhile, have secured 212 seats. There are just four outstanding races remaining to be called.


GOVERNOR


Kamala Harris: Potential CA Gubernatorial Campaign? 


Rumors are surfacing in California that a group of Kamala Harris' supporters are beginning to test the waters for her to run for Governor of California in 2026. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the next election. 


Prior to her election as Vice President, Ms. Harris had been elected to the Senate from California; before that, Golden State voters elected her as the state's Attorney General.

  

Lieutenant Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. In the top two primary system, it would not be surprising to see two Democrats advance into the general election. Ms. Harris won a similar campaign when she was first elected to the Senate in 2016, when she captured almost 62% of the vote against then-US Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County).  


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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