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SENATE
Polling Series: Emerson College / The Hill
Emerson College conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, conducted from Aug. 25-28 in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, we saw serious movement in only two of the races.
In Michigan, which usually reveals a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat's lead increased to six points, 47-41%.
The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the contest between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and Eric Hovde (R), Emerson found the incumbent leading by only one point, 49-48%.
In the other races, Democrats Ruben Gallego, Jacky Rosen, and Bob Casey, Jr. – all incumbents – continued posting strong numbers in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, respectively.
HOUSE
Nevada: All Four Districts Tested
As part of the same Emerson College polling series, the Nevada Senate poll also tested each of the state's four congressional districts. Because this was a statewide survey, only one of the polls exceeded 300 respondents, which is typically the minimum number required for a reliable congressional district survey. Still, with samples ranging from 280-291 respondents, the polls are all on the cusp of statistical credibility.
The results find all four incumbents – three Democrats and one Republican – posting double-digit leads over their general election opponents. The closest of the contests is, ironically, in what is thought to be the most Democratic of the Las Vegas seats.
In the North Las Vegas-anchored 4th District, Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 40-30%. Representatives Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) and Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) all hold leads of between 13 (Lee) and 31 (Amodei) points. The polling results suggest that all four incumbents will be returned to office in November.
VA-7: Virtual Tie
A newly-released poll, taken in early August, is the first we've seen for the open VA-7 general election campaign. The survey, from Ragnar Research for Republican Derrick Anderson's campaign, sees retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman (D) clinging to a one-point, 42-41%, edge over attorney and Afghan War veteran Anderson.
In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 17th-most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference, we can expect to see several more polls released here in the coming weeks.
STATES
Arizona: Ballot Prop Confusion
A lower court ruling greenlighting a ballot proposition to change Arizona's current partisan nomination system to a jungle primary in 2026 may be in doubt after a statement by Arizona's Supreme Court this week.
The high court said this week that the lower court did not address the issue of duplicate signatures when ruling that proposition proponents had enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.
The Down Ballot data organization reports that this proposal is also ambiguous in that it does not state how many candidates would advance to the general election if the proposition is adopted. Rather, a combination of the Governor, state legislature, and Secretary of State would eventually decide who qualifies to advance in each contest. The legal battle over this controversial proposition will continue for some time.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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