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HOUSE
AK: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead
Under the Alaska top four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich, III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third- and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.
A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Mr. Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45%. This suggests the NRCC will be going "all in" for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.
MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead
The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper, but has consistently elected Democratic Representatives since 2012. Earlier this week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39% in Mr. Parrott's favor.
Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.
MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid
Representative Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46% victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D) that was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st District as R+10.
The new Fabrizio Ward / David Binder Research poll for AARP sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Ms. Tranel, who returns for a rematch; but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43% in Rep. Zinke's favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Ms. Tranel.
OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing
Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon US Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.
This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer's opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey finds the Congresswoman trailing Ms. Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42%. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30% favorability index, Vice President Harris holds an eight point lead over Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the Congresswoman.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network,
click here or on the image below.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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