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PRIMARY RESULTS
Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed
Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday, and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.
In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Representative Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year's general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.
Representative Bill Keating's (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed on Tuesday for his party's nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.
SENATE
Ohio: Sen. Brown's Lead May Not Be So Secure
A new On Point / Red Eagle / SoCal Strategies survey has been released for the Ohio races and the results are consistent with what has been presented for weeks. In the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 52-43%. Yet, the Senate contest again produces a much different conclusion.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D) leads businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by five points, 50-45%. Since the end of May, Sen. Brown has led in six consecutive polls conducted by six different polling firms. His leads have been consistent: eight, five, six, four, five, and five points, even though Mr. Trump has led in each survey.
The last time Sen. Brown was on the ballot, in 2018, a total of eight polls were conducted for the race featuring the incumbent and then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Senator Brown led in each poll and his average advantage was just over 13 percentage points. Yet, his winning margin was only six points. Therefore, if polling history repeats itself in 2024, this race may prove closer than the current data suggest.
Pennsylvania: Race Getting Tighter
Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.
After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month's mid-to-latter periods has yielded different results. Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey's mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points. In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points. While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick's standing.
STATES
Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week
The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is fast approaching. The first to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and its deadline for posting is this Friday, Sept. 6. Three states will open early voting polling places on Sept. 20 – Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.
All but three states – Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire – have some form of early voting. Clearly, early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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