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PRESIDENT
NE-2: A Large Lead for Harris
The 2nd District of Nebraska has an important role in the presidential race – it can deliver an electoral vote to a Democratic nominee in a state that will assuredly vote Republican.
In that district, the just-released New York Times / Siena College poll found Vice President Kamala Harris' lead over former President Trump expand to nine percentage points (51-42%).
What is odd about this showing is that the 2nd District was actually made more Republican in the redistricting in 2021. It no longer has the boundaries that yielded President Biden a 22,000-vote margin four years ago.
Still, the polling data suggests a clear Harris lead with the time remaining to make any large swing back growing short.
Nebraska's early voting period begins Oct. 7 and carries through to Election Day.
SENATE
Ohio: Poll Weighting Discrepancy
The Ohio Senate race is getting closer. But, many are questioning why we see different polling margins from studies on the same race conducted during similar sampling periods.
The answer lies in the data weighting methodology. In states where party affiliation is not included in voter registration rolls (20 out of the 50 states do not include party affiliation), polling organizations use differing internal metrics to gauge how many voters lean in the various directions.
For an example, the way two recent Ohio pollsters weighted their data was made evident in the New York Times / Siena College formula versus that of PollFair.
According to NYT/Siena, the Ohio vote breaks down to 29% D, 34% R, 36% I, which
translates into a R+5 advantage.
PollFair, however, weights the same electorate differently: 31% D, 39% R, 30% I, which would yield a R+8 GOP advantage. It is these types of statistical calculations that largely account for most polling discrepancies.
RCP Ratings: 4 of 6 Rated Toss-Ups Are Not
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) US Senate rating chart is making the "Toss-Up" category too widespread. In fact, four of the six rated toss-up campaigns should be in other categories.
The six races that RCP rates as toss-ups are the Arizona and Michigan open races, and the incumbent contests for Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
The only races where the empirical and financial data could conceivably support a toss-up rating are the Michigan and Ohio contests, and even they at least tilt toward the Democratic candidate.
For the Arizona, Scott, Casey and Baldwin campaigns, it appears that recent polling data, resource imbalances, and historical voter performance have not been given proper consideration.
Accounting for the strong GOP gains in Florida over the past few years, the Scott race
should be in the "Lean Republican" column. There is no data to suggest that Sens. Casey and Baldwin should not be considered favorites for re-election in their respective races; and Rep. Gallego has enjoyed a clear lead in the Arizona race since the beginning of the general election cycle.
All four should be in the "Lean Democrat" column.
HOUSE
NE-2: Rep. Bacon Again Trails
The aforementioned New York Times / Siena College poll that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading Nebraska's 2nd District 51-42% also found Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion).
Though Mr. Bacon is faring considerably better than former President Trump, he apparently still trails his Democratic rival, a man he defeated 53-47% in 2022, by a 49-46% margin.
Once again, this is a seriously competitive race that promises a closer finish than in 2022,
considering the current polling data, and is sure to have a much larger presidential voter turnout.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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