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SENATE
Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead
RMG Research recently went into the Ohio field with a flash poll, and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45% edge, and 48-46% when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.
Though RMG has produced some questionable data as of late, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Mr. Moreno's direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown's margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.
HOUSE
VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll
Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia's 7th Congressional District.
The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43% tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41% spread in Mr. Vindman's favor.
The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for Governor.
GOVERNOR
Indiana: Closer Than Expected
The Republicans' strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year's open Governor's race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association, currently finds a close ballot test result.
Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by ten percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41%. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80% support within his own party. Ms. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32% clip.
A recent survey from Emerson College found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial eleven point lead, 45-34%.
North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away
Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson's recent, highly-publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Robinson in what was once a close race.
A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times / Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Mr. Stein leading the Governor's race by 8, 5, 10 and 11 points, consecutively. As Mr. Robinson's problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Mr. Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State Governor's mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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