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PRESIDENT
Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result
Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47%.
Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo's (R) victorious 2022 vote contribution percentages for Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo's performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.
While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Mr. Trump's 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo's 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former President will need to even improve slightly upon Lombardo's numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.
SENATE
Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies
Reports from the Free State are indicating that Maryland's Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), is reserving $18.2 million of advertising time between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks' rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.
FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data
The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.
While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.
HOUSE
California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts
The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at California State University, Long Beach, partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee's (D-Oakland) open 12th District, and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo's (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.
Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man's most prevalent negative is his highly-publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).
The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.
In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump, but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden's 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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