PRESIDENT
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Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System
The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state Senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Governor Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the Governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to affect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.
HOUSE
Alaska At-Large: Begich Up for First Time
For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich, III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Peltola, 44-40%.
Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election: Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe.
Should the final result show Begich the race leader, but under 50%, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.
NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead
One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District, located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman Congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).
The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO, finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43%, which, the polling analysis illustrates, is down from the Congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire: Dem Leads Ayotte
Former US Senator Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32% over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll. The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46%.
New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement in 2016 that she would not vote for Trump, with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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