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PRESIDENT
Nebraska: Cong Delegation Calls for Winner Take All
The five members of the Nebraska congressional delegation have sent a letter to Gov. Jim Pillen (R) advocating that he and the state legislature return to a unified state in terms of the Electoral College. Currently, Nebraska is one of two states – Maine being the other – that allows its congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote.
Senators Deb Fischer (R) and Pete Ricketts (R), along with Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering), argue that the President represents all of the people and Nebraska should join the 48 other states that award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the statewide count. Governor Pillen has been pushing state lawmakers to pass legislation to re-unify the state's electoral votes. The unicameral legislature, however, has not agreed.
Pillen could call a special session to enact such legislation to affect this year's election, which would almost assuredly add another important electoral vote to Donald Trump's column. If Nebraska takes such action, the Maine Democrats have warned that they will go into special session and unify their electoral votes, which would neutralize Nebraska's move. Neither state is realistically expected to make such a change for this election, however.
SENATE
Indiana: Rep. Banks (R) Way Up
There has been little coverage of the open Indiana Senate race, and US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) is expected to have one of the easiest paths toward winning an open US Senate seat in American history. Even in the Republican primary, Rep. Banks was unopposed for the party nomination. Incumbent Sen. Mike Braun (R) is foregoing running for a second term to campaign for Governor instead.
Emerson College polling for The Hill newspaper confirms that Rep. Banks is headed to the Senate. In their new Indiana statewide poll, Mr. Banks posts a 47-33% advantage over psychologist Valerie McCray (D).
HOUSE
WI-3: Rep. Van Orden (R) Trailing in New Poll
One of the seemingly under-the-radar competitive House races lies in western Wisconsin. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State's 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.
Mr. Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer-than-expected 52-48% vote spread. Since then, the Congressman has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC, finds Mr. Van Orden trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke (D), by two percentage points, 49-47%. This becomes yet another House race that merits political monitoring.
GOVERNOR
Indiana: Sen. Braun (R) Leads Gubernatorial Race
Looking at the recent Emerson College poll, the open Governor's race was also tested.
Though polling last week suggested a closer race, the Emerson College survey showed, as expected, Sen. Mike Braun (R) comfortably ahead of former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), with a margin spread of 45-34%. The latter poll likely reflects the more accurate Governor's race standing, since it is consistent with the numbers for President (Trump leading 57-40%) and the open US Senate race (Rep. Jim Banks (R) leading 47-33%).
Ms. McCormick was elected to her statewide education office in 2016, as a Republican, which was the last election before the position became appointed. After leaving office, Ms. McCormick switched her political party allegiance to the Democrats.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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