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SENATE
Michigan: Wide-Ranging Poll
Since the beginning of September, we've seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who served in the House for 14 years.
The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield & Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28 through Sept. 9, with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.
While Slotkin held significant leads throughout the month of August, the September polls show a wide support level. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to a low of just a one-point spread. The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead just over three percentage points.
Missouri: Shock Poll Released
The Missouri Senate race has been quiet all year, but a new survey finds the contest closing to within four percentage points. Conversely, two August polls, from YouGov and the Remington Research Group, saw Sen. Josh Hawley (R) leading attorney and Iraq and Afghan Wars veteran Lucas Kunce (D) with margins of 11 and 15 points. Now, a new GQR survey for the Kunce campaign finds the margin at 50-46% in Sen. Hawley's favor.
The chances are strong that this latter survey is an optimistic outlier, but the release of such data suggests that the Missouri Senate race is likely to attract greater attention as the election grows closer.
Ohio: Super PACs Equalizing Campaign Spending
According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is Oct. 15), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Through June 30, Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Moreno's $15.8 million, with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.
Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, and now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger. According to the Open Secrets organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million, versus $23 million to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the cryptocurrency-aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Moreno. Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million.
With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this contest. The most recent poll, from Morning Consult, finds Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43%.
STATES
Nebraska: Competing Abortion Initiatives
The Nebraska state Supreme Court ruled at the end of last week that two competing abortion-related initiatives could both remain on the ballot. Lawsuits had been filed stating that the two initiatives – one that would allow abortion until fetal viability and under other circumstances, and another that would enshrine Nebraska's current law that disallows abortions after the first trimester – violated the state's single-subject initiative law.
The Justices ruled that the initiatives both meet all legal definitions. Addressing the matter as to what happens if both competing measures pass, the ruling declares that the initiative receiving the most votes would supersede the other.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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