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PRESIDENT
Iowa: Trump Leading by 4 Points
The newly-released Selzer & Company poll, which has proven to be Iowa's most accurate pollster, shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 4 points (47-43%) in the state. This is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong pro-Trump state.
If we compare this outcome to the same poll from the same time-frame in the 2020 election, we can see the significance.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, last time around, the Iowa ballot test showed a tie between Mr. Trump and Joe Biden (who went on to post an eight point victory). The recent poll shows Iowa is currently signaling strongly in favor of Trump.
HOUSE
CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing
California's 22nd District, anchored by the Fresno area, is the country's second-most Democratic-leaning seat that elects a Republican. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign.
The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six-district series conducted for the House Majority) that found Rep. Valadao trailing former state
Assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44%.
The analysis indicates that voters in that heavily Democrat-leaning district oppose Project 2025 and feel Republicans would be a "rubber stamp" for a new Trump Administration.
This suggests the district may have been the victim of push polling by Democrats, as it is highly doubtful that respondents in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country would be familiar enough with Project 2025 (a publication from the Heritage Foundation, rather than the official position of the Republican Party or any Republican candidates) to harbor such a negative opinion.
It is clear, however, that this race is very close, as this poll showed.
CA-41: Unbelievably Odd Polling Results
There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly-released early September survey in California's 41st District is raising some questions.
RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll found 16-term US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) is trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35% split.
Mr. Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins by a margin of 52-48% in 2022, has to have more support than 35% in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7.
While this is a competitive race, such poll results along, with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier, to say the least.
VA-2: A Close Race
To those familiar with the district's history of tight campaigns, the recent pair of congressional polls for the Tidewater area's 2nd Congressional District comes as no surprise.
On the ballot are Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D).
In a poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership, Impact Research found that Rep. Kiggans has a one-point edge over her opponent (48-47%).
A more recent survey gives Ms. Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport
University tested the 2nd District electorate and found the Congresswoman in much stronger shape, with a five-point lead, 45-40%.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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