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PRESIDENT
Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo
In the aftermath of Tuesday evening's debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted an online flash poll of 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states.
Comparing the results to the campaign's previous online poll of 5,600 likely voters from seven swing states – conducted in the lead-up to the debate – Team Trump claims that the former President actually gained support following Tuesday night's clash in Philadelphia.
Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – found Trump leading Harris, 48-46% when minor party candidates were included, and 50-47% from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question.
The pre-debate data had found the two tied at 46% apiece in the multi-candidate configuration, and 48-48% from the head-to-head question.
Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week, when we see the next round of publicly-released polling.
HOUSE
Congressional Leadership Fund Launches Series of Ads
The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well-researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target, and is free of what are commonly called "cookie cutter" messages, where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.
The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).
GOVERNOR
Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy?
Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey, who will be ineligible to seek a third term as Alabama's chief executive.
In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal, but said that he is "tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority." His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.
Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for Governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly-Republican Alabama. With his robust conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly-favorable.
Another possible scenario, should the Senator decide to run for Governor, is seeing a primary that isn't as hotly-contested, since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville's open Senate seat.
POLLING
'FiveThirtyEight' Releases New Pollster Rankings
The FiveThirtyEight data organization released its latest rankings of the nation's political pollsters this week, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.
The number one pollster is the New York Times / Siena College. ABC News / Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School, third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, ranking just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four pollsters received perfect 3.0 scores on the FiveThirtyEight scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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